每日新闻更新 — 正如预期那样的美联储 The Daily Update – The Fed, as Expected

正如预期的那样,美联储将联邦基金的目标区间维持在1.75%-2%之间不变。该决定是一致达成的,只是在声明中有一些措辞上的变化,是为了强调已经增长的前景。本次会议之后没有新闻发布会,于是会议记录就可能成为人们关注的对象。市场正在期待在9月25日至26日的会议上再增加25个基点。

该声明的主要变化是对增长前景的更新;该声明表示,“经济活动一直在以强劲的速度上涨”,而之前的声明曾谈到“稳固的利率”。该声明还指出:“最近几个月平均就业增长强劲,失业率一直保持在较低水平。家庭支出和商业固定投资强劲增长”。

6月份的美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的会议纪要表明:“许多人指出,如果联邦基金利率的目标范围继续逐步增加,明年的某个时候联邦基金利率可能会达到或高于中性水平。如果经济如预期的那样发展,委员会的交流将如何围绕着以后的会议而发展,对此与会者展开了讨论;特别值得一提的是,他们中的一些人指出,不久就会需要对会后声明中使用的语言予以修改,这表明“货币政策的立场仍然具有较强的适应性。”7月份的声明保留了这些措辞,但是这一讨论的延续都可能成为7月份会议纪要的一个关注的领域,尤其是在人们期待9月份还有一次加息的情况下。此外,在措辞改为更积极的增长前景之后,与会人员进一步讨论了关税对经济的影响。

杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在7月17日向国会发表的讲话中指出,人们期望“为现阶段”逐步加息。通胀数据仍然支持美联储采取的谨慎的态度:本周早些时候美国6月份个人消费支出(PCE)平减指数同比上涨2.2%,略低于市场预期的同比增长的2.3%。然而,美联储的财政部和机构证券的资产负债表规范化计划在10月份的时候每月将增加多达500亿美元的同时,进一步的加息也将同时出现。除此之外,财政部今年年底的融资计划看起来很繁忙,预计2018年下半年的净借款为7690亿美元,用于资助因减税和支出而导致的不断膨胀的美国财政赤字:到2020年的时候赤字将超过1万亿美元。我们认为在这个周期的这个阶段财政扩张会增加风险。

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