每日新闻更新 — 里拉下跌的态势减弱,但土耳其仍然在受煎熬 The Daily Update – Turkey still in the oven as Lira decline abates

干预措施现在算是逆转了里拉的下跌,但更广泛的市场情绪的蔓延有可能进一步恶化。

仅在8月份,土耳其里拉兑美元本周初的贬值从5扩大到了7以上(当你可以用整数谈论欧洲外汇的走势时总是令人兴奋的),但今天有所回升,在继续的波浪起伏中暂时跌破6。这种局面的缓解是在安卡拉对卖空施加限制之后发生的,对在美国的汽车、香烟和酒精商品上征收更高的关税产生了更大的净正面的影响。

但今天欧洲和亚洲股票指数中的红色海洋反映出持续的悲观情绪,因为市场知道,这些迹象表明它们所熟悉的新兴市场已经失败。需要提醒读者的是,根据我们的净外资资产分析,土耳其是一个低阶二星评级,这意味着它的净外债务接近了它的 GDP 的100%,这是一个被认为是不可持续的水平,尤其是在面对投资者的悲观情绪的时候。

外债总额目前约为4670亿美元,部分原因是外债助长了投机性发展和不加节制的基础设施项目。现在外国直接投资的净流入已经下降到大约100亿美元 — 是2006至2008年期间的水平的一半,而里拉的贬值正在导致硬通货偿在国内的迅速膨胀。今年10月到期的30亿美元债券以及未来一年到期的大约1000亿美元的政府债券,在没有2001年银行危机的过程中采用的一些缓冲措施的情况下,当前经济放缓和贬值的态势一旦蔓延就会引发人们对其支付能力的严重担忧。

自今年年初以来,土耳其的本币主权曲线已经倒转,并且已经从14-12%(基于3个月到10年的债券)转变为24%-22%,变化的水平达到了10%,而其中的一半是在上个月出现的。将一个国家的支付能力建立在货币和借款利率是稳定的这一假设上显然是一个既愚蠢又过于简单的前提;然而许多投资者甚至评级机构都在这样做的情况是司空见惯的。在这种情况下,这两种变化经常看起来相当稳定并且有吸引力,直到有一天好景不再。而有时候,这种毫无根据的乐观幻想的破灭只需要来自特朗普的还算矜持的对其征收关税的一点威胁。

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