每日新闻更新 — 美国液化天然气:中国拒绝特朗普的天然气 The Daily Update – US LNG: China Turns up Nose to Trump’s Gas

中美贸易紧张局势继续升级,特朗普表示将在7月份已实施的340亿美元的关税之上追加160亿美元的关税。美国还威胁要进一步追加2000亿美元的关税。中国在建议的关税中以再加600亿美元的关税与之回应。

中国建议的关税包括将美国液化天然气的进口列入产生25%关税的商品清单中。截至2017年,尽管欧洲地区进口了4590万吨液化天然气,但中国仍是世界第二大液化天然气进口国,吞吐量为3900万吨(源于 GIIGNL 数据),仅次于进口量为8350万吨的日本。重要的是,中国一直是需求增长的关键领域。根据标准普尔普拉茨的数据,在2018年1月至7月期间,中国从美国进口了188万吨液化天然气,已超过2017年的进口量。虽然这些数字目前很小,但美国希望大幅增加对中国的液化天然气出口,随着多个项目将于2019年底投产,美国液化天然气的铭牌产能预测将达到6700万吨。普拉茨估计,到2023年中国的液化天然气需求量将达到6800万吨。

在实施关税的情况下,中国应该能够从澳大利亚、俄罗斯和卡塔尔的供应商那里获得额外的数量,所有这些供应商的液化天然气产能扩张都将投入使用。此外,更低的成本可能会使这些国家的供应更加引人注目。目前尚不清楚欧洲(作为美国液化天然气的替代买家)对该产品的需求将增加到何种程度,因为从定价的角度来看,俄罗斯的管道天然气在欧洲具有极大的竞争力,而迄今为止到欧洲来的美国的液化天然气货船仍然很小。但特朗普7月份在与欧盟委员会主席让·克劳德·容克(Jean Claude Juncker)的会晤中同意促进能源合作;容克在昨天的一份声明中指出:“欧盟已准备好促进从美国进口更多的液化天然气,这已经是我们所谈到的事宜。美国液化天然气出口增长,如果价格具有竞争力,可能会在欧盟天然气供应中发挥越来越大的战略作用”。

卡塔尔是全球最大的液化天然气出口国(2017年为7750万吨),其中有779万吨在2017年流入中国。展望未来,该国可能会以其计划下的增加产能受益于中国日益增长的液化天然气需求。卡塔尔天然气公司计划到2023年将产量从约7700万吨增加到1亿吨。在此背景下,我们继续喜欢将卡塔尔的主权和相关名称介入有重要战略意义的液化天然气产业,而该产业在我们的估值模型上表现出相当的吸引力。

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