每日新闻更新 — 美国的关税及其不一致性 — 以中国和越南为例 The Daily Update – US Tariffs and their inconsistencies - China and Vietnam

随着美国警告称(除了已经征收的340亿美元以及可能在今天晚些时候生效的160亿美元之外)要对中国2000亿美元的进口产品征收关税(从最初威胁的10%)进一步加码至25%,值得审视一下美国关于外汇操纵的政策,考虑它对全球经济的影响,以及 — 在这种边缘政策中许多(国家)将失去不少利益的情况下 — 识别出从这些不断升级的关税威胁中获得任何利益的任何(国家)。

美国有三个确定汇率操纵国的官方标准:和美国的双边盈余超过200亿美元,经常账户盈余超过GDP的3%,货币干预超过GDP的2%。但很显然至少还有一些更重要的因素:大到可以被描绘为对美国普通公民形成了公共威胁,对知识产权的规避,以及也许是一个某个国家元首在地图上能够找到并命名的国家,例如,中国、墨西哥和加拿大。昨天来自苹果公司出乎预期的收益便是能够说明这些因素的再好不过的例子:苹果公司尽管收益增长了40%,其作为全球智能手机出口商的霸主地位已经被同时期中国的华为所取代。

即便粗略地看一眼其他该受责备的国家,这些次要因素的重要性也是很明显的。例如,越南的经常账户盈余约为7%,最近货币干预活动也急剧上升至GDP的7%左右,其双边贸易顺差正快速接近400亿美元。因此,就技术指标而言,它对所有这三项指标的违反都超过了200%或更多。在允许其货币贬值大约4年之后,越南现在正在积极压低其货币盾,并积累了其GDP的近25%的外汇储备 — 在过去3年中翻了一番增加至600多亿美元。面对更广泛的美元走强以及对来自中国的更为激烈的竞争的担忧,其货币也变得疲软。

如果越南能够避开其对美国出口500亿美元左右的风头,它不应该有什么危险,美国和越南的大邻国之间持续的贸易争端实际上可能对越美贸易产生促进作用,因为它将把生意从中国吸引过去。当然,这是假设越南避免了来自美国及其亚洲邻国的关税;这些国家毫无疑问能够会看到弱势的盾是如何在其他地方强势进行超额储蓄的。这并不是说该地区的保护主义言论没有那么糟糕,而是说这些国家完全能够意识到越南的增长道路和政策带来的机遇和威胁 - 因为这跟他们几十年前曾经走过的道路是一模一样的。

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