每日新闻更新 — 美元兑土耳其里拉的自由落体运动 The Daily Update – USDTRY free fall

因为美国牧师安德鲁·布伦森(Andrew Brunson)事件持续发酵,土耳其和美国在外交上发生争执,导致美国政府威胁要审查土耳其免税进入美国市场的权利,致使昨天土耳其里拉兑美元跌至创纪录水平。此举可能会对土耳其近17亿美元的出口构成威胁。里拉下跌了6%,一度触及5.4222,然后小幅回升至5.25(在撰写本文时)。年初至今该货币已暴跌近27%。土耳其政府债券也下跌至创纪录的收益率,10年期交易接近20%。iShares MSCI土耳其ETF也下跌近7.5%,交易价格还不到25美元。

据报道一个土耳其外交官代表团将前往华盛顿试图化解这两个国家之间持续的争吵。之后发生了这次抛售。在过去的几个月里,他们之间的关系因叙利亚的分歧而恶化,但主要是因为对美国牧师安德鲁·布伦森的逮捕和审判。上周,华盛顿对塔伊普·埃尔多安(Tayyip Erdogan)总统的司法部长阿卜杜勒哈米德·古尔和(Abdulhamit Gul)和内政部长苏莱曼·索伊卢(Suleyman Soylu)实施制裁,称他们“在负责逮捕和拘留牧师安德鲁·布伦森的组织中发挥了主导作用”。埃尔多安表示,土耳其将通过冻结美国在土耳其的内政部和司法部长的资产进行报复,“如果他们有的话”。

正如我们之前提到的,虽然对某些人来说,在这些水平上投资者可能愿意“小试身手”,但不管它看起来多么诱人,我们都不会这么做。首先,由于土耳其只有2星级的NFA位置,所以会被我们拒绝,此外,在可投资的信用质量要好得多的其他国家中我们可以找到预期的回报,包括高于16%的预期的回报。

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