每日新闻更新 — 资产缓冲和“PAINTBRUSH”国家 The Daily Update – Asset buffers & PAINTBRUSH

本周早些时候,标准普尔发布了一份报告,强调了大量流动性政府资产在支持主权评级中的重要性:“当政府资产超过 GDP 的100%时,其积极的影响便显示在我们的分析之中,这就是目前我们所评估的七个主权国家的情况。在这些国家中名列前茅的是科威特,其次是挪威和阿布扎比。”报告接着说:“最近的油价一直在暴跌,在这整个期间,我们对科威特和阿布扎比的评级都一直稳定在‘AA’,充分证明了拥有大量流动资产给评级带来的稳定性。”

在斯特拉顿大街(Stratton Street),长期以来,我们在筛选我们希望接触的国家的过程中,一直相信净外国资产(NFA)重要性。我们青睐债权国和那些净外债低于 GDP 的50%的国家。国际货币基金组织的研究表明,超过这一门槛的净外债与外部危机的风险增加有关;正如我们最近看到的那样,一些债务人的资产市场因美联储继续收紧并控制美元的流动性而面临压力。

拥有净外国资产的国家对外国资本流入的依赖程度低于有净外债的国家,而从长远的眼光来看,债权国的货币往往会升值,而负债累累的国家的货币往往会贬值。早在2014年2月,斯特拉顿街就列出了一系列具有较大净外债的脆弱的国家,我们将其统称为“PAINTBRUSH”(“油漆”)国家。<译者注:把这些国家的英文名称的第一个单词(有些国家的英文名称有两个单词)的首写字母集合在一起便构成了 PAINTBRUSH)。>如果不根据对其关注的程度排序的话,这些国家就是波兰、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、新西兰、土耳其、巴西、罗马尼亚、乌克兰、南非和匈牙利。从整体上讲,自2014年2月底以来,这些国家的货币(即期汇率)对美元都没有显示出的正回报:土耳其里拉表现最差,下跌了66.1%,紧接着是乌克兰格里夫纳,下跌了64.8%,巴西雷亚尔下跌了43.5%。波兰兹罗提的表现还算最佳,仅仅下跌了18.1%(以现货价格为基础)。相比之下,新加坡、中国、日本和瑞士等债权国的货币表现较好,尽管在此期间美元指数(DXY)上升。

(现在)让我们换个角度来看待这些现象,2008年8月全球金融危机刚刚开始(雷曼兄弟于2008年9月申请破产),8月底至年底土耳其里拉下跌了22.9%,乌克兰格里夫纳下跌了40.2%,波兰兹罗提下跌了23.4%。与此同时,10年期国债在此期间下跌了160个基点,年底收于2.2%。

当然,过去的表现并不能作为将来的向导,但去杠杆化阶段始终遵循一个可预测的模式,PAINTBRUSH 这些国家的货币总是比债权国的货币下跌得多。同样,政府债券总是奋力反弹以求高质量的变化,因此市场仍然在美国国债中创下空头记录,这似乎还是有点令人惊讶的。我们都知道“痛苦交易” — 市场向大多数投资者提供最大痛苦的那种趋势,因为一种流行的策略总有意想不到的因素在暗中发力。也许这些投资者应该更多地小心这些 PAINTBRUSH 国家的货币,毕竟前四个字母应该能够提醒人们,当人们趋之如鹜地涌向的一桩交易开始出现问题时会发生什么事情。<译者注:PAINTBRUSH 的前四个字母构成的单词的意思是“痛苦”。>  

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