每日新闻更新 — PAINTBRUSH 国家 The Daily Update – PAINTBRUSH

本周早些时候,在2003年至2011年之间任欧洲央行行长并在1993年至2003年之间任法国银行行长的让·克劳德·特里谢在接受法新社采访时发表了一些有趣的评论。他说,“现在人们一致认为,发达经济体过度的债务水平是引发2007年和2008年全球金融危机的关键因素”;他还说,“发达国家的债务增长,特别是私人债务增长已经放缓,但这种放缓却被新兴国家债务的加速所抵消。”在特里谢看来:“这使得全球整个金融体系的情况如果不比那时更脆弱的话,至少跟2008年一样脆弱。”

我们的投资方式一贯喜欢债权国和净外国债务(NFL)低于 GDP 的50%的国家,因为国际货币基金组织的研究表明,超过这一门槛的 NFL 都与外部危机风险的增加有关。拥有净外国资产的国家对外国资本流入的依赖程度低于有净外债的国家,而且从长远的眼光来看,债权国的货币往往会升值,而负债累累的国家的货币往往会贬值。早在2014年2月,(我们)斯特拉顿大街(Stratton Street)就列出了一系列具有较大净外债的脆弱的国家,我们将其统称为“PAINTBRUSH”(“画笔”)国家。<译者注:把这些国家的英文名称的第一个单词(有些国家的英文名称有两个单词)的首写字母集合在一起便构成了 PAINTBRUSH)。>如果不根据对其关注的程度排序的话,这些国家就是波兰、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、新西兰、土耳其、巴西、罗马尼亚、乌克兰、南非和匈牙利。从整体上来看,自2014年2月底以来,这些国家的货币中没有任何一种(即期汇率)对美元显示出正回报:罗马尼亚列伊是这一糟糕小组中最好的一组,下跌了18.6%,土耳其里拉下跌了67%。

如果我们使用欧盟统计局的计算,下跌了19.4%的波兰兹罗提对于一个净外国负债占 GDP 的59%的国家来说相对还是较好的。至于波兰的外部地位,我们自己的数据显示的情况要比官方数据显示的情况弱得多,对于由于资产和负债重估导致的任何积极变化,我们是忽略不计的,因为这些变化在危机期间可能会迅速发生变化。

我们认为波兰是一个二星级国家。虽然这比葡萄牙或希腊要好一些,但并不会给投资者带来多少安慰。二星级国家的负债超过了 GDP 的50%,在去杠杆化期间,就像我们目前正在经历的这段时间那样,负债超过50%阈值的国家的货币就会特别脆弱。为了说明这一点,请考虑2008年7月底至2009年2月期间(也就是压力最大的那段时间)该货币对美元的回报。如果我们使用彭博的 WCRS 功能并按货币对美元进行排名,那么该功能会显示10个表现最佳和11个表现最差的货币(不知道他们为什么显示了11个)。如果我们看看最底层的11种货币,10个 PAINTBRUSH 国家中有8个就出现在该列表中,波兰兹罗提的表现是第二差,在那段期间下降了44%。

拥有大量波兰兹罗提的资金持有人(周围有很多)会认为,波兰的基本面自2008年以来已经有所改善,但就其外国净负债而言,情况并非如此。对他们来说不幸的是,到2008年波兰的净外国负债占国内生产总值的58%,跟今天的情况几乎一模一样。如果借用特里谢上边的评论并考虑到(我们)斯特拉顿大街掌握的比原来还糟糕的波兰的外国净负债的数据,兹罗提如果不比那时更脆弱的话,至少跟2008年一样脆弱。

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