每日新闻更新 — 阿根廷:非常勇敢的人才会去投资的国度 - The Daily Update – Argentina

(阿根廷将)利率(调整)为60%,上个月该国的货币兑美元汇率下跌了25%,昨日公布的消费者物价指数(CPI) 同比(上涨)30%,(在这样的背景下)阿根廷试图在2019年前平衡预算的期望似乎过于乐观。

昨天政府暂停租用(有关服务)并减少对公用事业的补贴之后,(有关部门)宣布了紧急措施,其中包括大约90亿美元的出口税,但对该联合政府最重要的考验将是它能否在2019年预算中实施对公共支出的削减,该预算将在本月晚些时候呈交给国会(批准)。这将进一步激怒那些因工资增长停滞但价格上涨而感到沮丧的群体。

马克里(Macri)总统最近在电视上讲话说,阿根廷需要国际货币基金组织提前支付原来在6月份协商的500亿美元信贷额度,以便为预算提供资金而不致于进一步陷入更深的债务。这导致了投资者的不满 — 他们抱怨说,政府已经脱离了计划,而且沟通也不通畅。市场的反应是进一步将比索抛售7.3%,并将阿根廷十年期国债的价格从四个月前的100.00水平下逼至75.50附近。

事实上,评级为“B2”的以美元计价的阿根廷主权债务交易高出美国国债775个基点,是年初价差的两倍。然而,即使在这种价差下,根据我们的模型,市场价格还低于2个信用额度,目前的价格正接近 Caa1 评级。如果希望达到“公允价值”差价则相当于债券价格做出15点反弹以及每年10.63%的收益率;对于极其勇敢的人来说,这确实提供了一些(盈利的)潜力。

正如一位观察人士所说:“基本面仍然薄弱使得阿根廷资产最容易受到风险偏好的漂移和全球金融状况的影响”。这话说得很好,不过我们不需要(为其中所指的问题而)担心,因为阿根廷仍被排除在我们的授权之外。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.