每日新闻更新 — 被蒙蔽的意大利人?The Daily Update – Blinkered Italians?

周五,评级机构惠誉将意大利的主权债务前景下调至负面,同时重申了对这个地中海国家的评级为 BBB。这表明对新联合政府财政放松的预期可能使该国的高额债务更容易受到潜在冲击的影响。意大利新的民粹主义政府由极右联盟和反建制的五星运动组成,有一种“新的未经考验的性质”,是惠誉做出这一决定的原因之一。新政府承诺将履行其选举承诺,计划增加公共支出,为穷人提供最低工资以及减税。惠誉担心这些承诺可能对该国的赤字和债务产生负面影响。上周,穆迪延长到10月底再决定是否下调对意大利的债务评级。目前,穆迪将意大利评为 Baa2。

意大利拥有大约2.3万亿欧元的债务,使其成为世界上负债最重的国家之一,相当于其国内产出的130%。然而,目前两个联盟伙伴没有发出任何信号,对他们的选举承诺中的哪一个(如果有的话)予以缩水以便将公共开支纳入控制之下。在9月底,政府将公布其公共财政目标和增长计划,预算在大约一个月后由内阁批准。意大利经济部长乔瓦尼·特里亚(Giovanni Tria)认为,一旦计划公布,评级机构就会修改其预测。特里亚告诉记者“未来几周的行动将被反应到官方的政府文件中来”;他接着又说,“惠誉的决定将得到积极的纠正,因为他们的意见不是基于事实,而是基于对政府的看法而已”。

更令人担忧的是副总理路易吉·迪马约(Luigi Di Maio)的观点 — 他认为意大利政府面临着一个残酷的选择 — 到底是把意大利人民(的利益)放在首位,还是唯评级机构的意见是听。他说,“这两件事并不一定相互对立,但如果是这样的话,我们总会选择意大利人的利益”;他接着又说,“我们不会去考虑为了安抚评级机构和市场在意大利人的背后捅上一刀”。鉴于意大利的信用评级只比垃圾级高出两个节点,要不了多久恐怕迪马约就会重新考虑这一说法。

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