每日新闻更新 — 巴西大选和“画笔”国家 The Daily Update – Brazil Election & PAINTBRUSH

十月份即将举行的巴西总统选举的竞选活动正在如火如荼地进行,路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦(Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva)由于腐败被定罪而被选举法庭禁止参选。此外,极右翼候选人(Jair Bolsonaro)因为在参加竞选集会时遇刺而被迫住院,这可能会减少他的竞选活动。

卢拉(Lula)已经呼吁选民支持前圣保罗市市长 — 现在的工党的候选人 — 费尔南多·哈达德(Fernando Haddad);在卢拉的支持下,哈达德应该有机会进入决胜阶段。星期一的 Datafolha 民意调查显示,哈达德占据9%的比例并力争第二名的位置,(左翼候选人)西罗·戈麦斯(Ciro Gomes)获得13%的选票,(环保主义者)玛丽娜·希尔瓦(Marina Silva)获得11%的选票,前圣保罗州州长(中右翼)热拉尔多·奥克明(Geraldo Alckmin)获得10%的选票,而极右翼候选人海尔·博尔索纳罗则以24%的选票领先。第一轮选举将于10月7日举行。

新的总统将面临许多挑战,但关键问题是他们能够在多大程度上对有争议的诸如社会保障领域进行改革以帮助解决巴西的财政赤字问题:惠誉估计2018年巴西政府的一般赤字(包括利息支付)占 GDP 的8%。更甚的是,巴西也有很高的政府债务水平,惠誉估计,2018年的债务水平将达到 GDP 的77.5%。国会曾在2016年通过了一项修正案,限制公共领域的基本支出的实际价值,但由于强制性支出约占支出的90%,而且社会保障费用一直在增长,(相关领域)需要进行改革。人口老龄化的情况意味着迫切需要养老金的改革。巴西的经常账户也存在着赤字,但要小于过去的数字,2017年的时候处于 GDP 的0.5%。

斯特拉顿大街(Stratton Street)的投资方法是使用净外国资产作为筛选标准,我们尽力避免那些净外债超过 GDP 的50%的国家,这是国际货币基金组织研究表明的跟外部危机风险增加挂钩的门槛。我们的分析显示,巴西超过了这个门槛,尽管我们已经在它尚未达到这个门槛时就将其拒之门外,因为其基本面不佳反映了其 LT 的外币评级趋势下降到次级投资级别(穆迪/标准普尔/惠誉给出的评级分别是 Ba2/BB-/BB-)。巴西是(我们)斯特拉顿大街列出的“画笔”国家列表中的一个;在2014年2月我们在这个列表中确定了14个脆弱国家。从整体上看,巴西雷亚尔自2014年2月底以来已经下跌了43.3%(现货基础)。

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