每日新闻更新 — 中国回应特朗普的关税 The Daily Update – China Responds to Trump Tariffs

在美国政府对另外2000亿美元的中国商品征收关税后不到24小时,中国便做出反应,要对美国600亿美元的进口产品征收5-10%的关税。这个较低的数字反映了这样一个事实:美国对中国的出口远远少于中国对美国的出口。美国商务部长威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross)在评论中的措辞是,中国“没有子弹了”(让人们更加感到这是一场“战争”),因为美国对这个亚洲国家的出口量约为中国对美出口的四分之一。

一般来讲,国家会从贸易中受益。从国外进口需要时间和资金,因此,只有在两种情况下,你才会这样做:第一中情况是,进口的货物比国产的要便宜得多;第二种情况是,国内市场没有这些产品的供应。在第一种情况下,征收关税可能会导致消费者购买美国商品作为替代品,但前提是价格差异首先就足够小,这样关税才能奏效。在第二种情况下,假设消费者需要有关商品,所以它们仍然会得到进口,但价格就会变得更贵。这样做的最终结果通常是,尽管政府从中受益,但征收关税国家的消费者就要多掏腰包。由于这种影响对于这两个国家是相同的,最可能的结果是两国的经济增长都会变弱,因为消费者面对提高的物价会转向其他商品减少开支。

到目前为止,美国已经豁免了手机和电脑等流行商品,但对来自中国的所有进口产品征收关税意味着这些商品也将受到冲击。这在美国中期选举前是不得人心的,对美国公司也是非常具有破坏性的。例如,生产 Roku 集成智能电视的元素电器(Element Electronics)正在拉响警报。上个月,元素电器的总法律顾问大卫·贝尔(David Baer)告诉美国贸易代表委员会说,“世界上唯一一家电视公司就是受301关税(条款)管辖的唯一一家在美国生产电视的公司。想想吧。”

中国当局明确表示,他们并不打算削弱汇率来抵消关税带来的影响,而上述例子从某种程度上解释了这个原因。尽管难以对影响的冲击做出模型,但不难看出为什么这两个国家的增长可能都会受到负面影响;中国已经通过宽松政策作出回应,而美国仍在采用紧缩模式。我们的结论是,在这场特别的战争中,双方(和全世界)都将成为输家,但美国可能是最大的输家。

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