每日新闻更新 — 经合组织下调对经济增长的预测 The Daily Update – OECD Downgrades Growth

上周四,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)下调了对2018年和2019年全球经济增长的预测,并警告说对增长的预测较低的原因主要在于全球不确定性因素的增加。经合组织在其最新的中期经济展望报告中表示,“2018年和2019年全球经济增长预计将稳定在3.7%,略低于危机前的水平,下行风险加剧”;该组织还表示,“政策支持和强劲的就业增长继续支撑着国内需求,但一些新兴市场经济体正面临着金融市场压力上升带来的重重阻力”。

最新的对今年的增长预测下降了0.1个百分点,降至3.7%;与5月份的最近预测相比,明年将下降0.2个百分点,同样为3.7%。一个明显被降级的地区是欧元区。经合组织现在预测(该地区)今年的增长率为2%,低于原来的2.2%的预测;目前对2019年的预测下降到1.9%,同样为0.2%。

经济合作与发展组织注意到2018年前6个月全球贸易发展的放缓,认为目前的贸易紧张局势对投资计划和信心产生了不利影响。该组织认为,额外的贸易纠纷将破坏生活水平和就业机会,特别是那些低收入的家庭。

经合组织提出的另一个担心是当前对资产价格的估值和债务水平,尤其是新兴市场经济体。该组织表示,“在金融危机爆发后十年的今天,金融市场的脆弱性仍然存在于资产价格上涨和高债务水平之中”;该组织还表示,“改革虽说加强了银行体系,但风险已转向监管不严格的非银行机构”。

这个报告并非是除了悲观还是悲观,经济合作与发展组织对未来的经济政策提出了一些建议。这些建议反复出现的主题是,应该为恢复稳定和信心的政策奠定基础,同时应该确保有关政策更具有包容性,并为所有人提供改善的机会。

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