每日新闻更新 — 为什么澳大利亚令人担心 The Daily Update – PAINTBRUSH - Why Australia raises concerns

最近几周,我们一直专注于“PAINTBRUSH”(画笔)国家,我们早在2014年2月就强调过这些国家是特别脆弱的。<译者注:这里所说的 PAINTBRUSH 国家包括波兰、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、新西兰、土耳其、巴西、罗马尼亚、乌克兰、南非和匈牙利。把这些国家的英文名称的第一个单词(有些国家的英文名称有两个单词)的首写字母集合在一起便构成了 PAINTBRUSH)。最近我们强调波兰兹罗提特别疲软。

我们创造的首写字母缩约语中的第二个字母是澳大利亚的“A”。波兰的人均 GDP 还不足14,000美元,是一个新兴国家,这一点是无可争议的,而澳大利亚则通常被认为是富裕并发达的经济体。它可能是一个发达的经济体,但至于富裕不富裕要看如何给这个词下定义。在斯特拉顿大街,我们做了一个简单的观察,即如果你欠外国人的净债务大于你的国内资产的价值,那么作为净债务人,你就不能被视为富裕国家。   

澳大利亚的软肋是对海外资本的依赖。根据我们的估计,澳大利亚的净外债高于我们对 GDP 的50%的截止值。国际货币基金组织的研究表明,这一临界值与外部危机风险的增加有关。从投资的角度来看,这是一个“避免去做的事情” — 这是我们长期以来坚持的观点。澳大利亚问题的根源是经常账户上的赤字。国际货币基金组织的世界经济展望数据库的最新数据显示,从1980年至(根据预测直到)2023年之间,澳大利亚的经常账户永远不会有结余!这是一项相当了不起的成就,连续43年都在增加借外债的额度!

就此政府官员以往进行过评论,前财政部长表示,“如果政府无法进行调整,重振制造业,保持适度的工资水平以及明智的经济政策,那么澳大利亚基本上就不再强大了。我们最终将成为一个三流的经济体,一个香蕉共和国”。说这话的时候是在1986年,这段评论来自当时负责澳大利亚的财务大臣保罗·基廷(Paul Keating),但遗憾的是澳大利亚人并没有在意他的言论。

最终的清算日总是要到来的,当澳大利亚人希望以出售其“资产”来偿还债务时,(发现)其价值已经开始下降了。这通常会表现在房地产上,即将发生问题的早期预警迹象可能是澳大利亚房地产价格连续11个月的下跌。虽然所有主要评级机构目前对该国的评级皆为 Aaa,但我们认为早就应该对澳大利亚的评级进行降级了。

如果你想知道澳元如何表现(可以看一下这组数据),自2014年2月我们创造了 PAINTBRUSH 这个术语以来,该货币已经下跌了20.6%,还不如同期下跌19.1%的波兰兹罗提。事实上,自2014年初以来,澳元在我们追踪的31种表现最差的货币中排名第12,尽管它的所谓的“财富”,澳元兑美元的表现还不如印度这个人均国内生产总值相对贫穷但在净外国资产方面富裕得多的国家。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.