每日新闻更新 — 沙特阿拉伯和石油 The Daily Update – Saudi Arabia & oil

由于美国对伊朗实施的制裁(将于11月生效),布伦特原油继续寻求测试每桶80美元的水平,但伊朗的原油出口量已经受到了冲击。市场开始关注石油输出国组织和非石油输出国组织石油生产国9月23日在阿尔及尔的会议并期待从中得到指导:鉴于潜在的对伊朗和委内瑞拉的供应限制以及貌似来自美国的要避免在中期选举前让油价飙升的压力,有关方面很有可能采取一些行动或者谈判将油价保持在70-80美元的范围内。

越发走强的石油价格继续使石油出口国受益,尤其是海湾合作委员会国家,据此政府的资金压力已经在某种程度上得到缓解。事实上,穆迪指出,在2018年上半年,伊斯兰债券总发行量同比下降12%至550亿美元,“部分原因是海湾合作委员会主权国家的活动减少”,使得伊斯兰债券发行量下降32%至167亿美元。他们指出,这“可能反映了油价上涨的情况,从而降低了政府的预算赤字,继而也降低了他们的借贷需求。”

国际货币基金组织关于沙特阿拉伯的第四条报告指出,“石油价格在过去一年中上涨,对其财政和外部平衡产生了积极影响。”国际货币基金组织预计财政赤字将从2017年的-9.3%改善到2018年的-4.6%和2019年的-1.7%。经常账户状况预计也会从2017年的2.2%的盈余增加到2018年的9.3%和2019年的8.2%的盈余。

目前,虽然能源部长哈立德·法立赫(Khalid al-Falih)表示政府仍然积极辅佐首次公开募股,但拟议上市的沙特阿美公司(预计该公司将筹集到大约1000亿美元的资金)似乎有所延迟。因此,70-80美元的油价可能有助于增加政府的收入。重要的是,沙特阿拉伯仍然保留了重要的资产缓冲,而这为该国提供了回旋余地,在2017年底的时候,一般政府债务低得仅占 GDP 比例的17%。此外,对其更强指数的录入也正在刺激投资者对该海湾合作委员会(成员)纸券的兴趣。

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