每日新闻更新 — 南非 The Daily Update – South Africa

继土耳其和阿根廷接连倒下之后,本周开始了对第三个新兴市场多米诺骨牌的预期:不出所料,南非登台了,进入了九年来的第一次衰退,然后在第二天,两年内下降最多的工厂产量的数据加剧了人们的失望。农业生产的放缓是经济疲软的主要驱动因素,但政治和政策的不确定性也起了主要的作用。

在当前传染性恐慌的气氛中,这足以使本月迄今为止南非兰特下跌6%,推动该货币今年迄今贬值超过20%。这次大幅贬值与2015年年底的那次货币贬值遥相呼应。

长期以来,南非一直是一个净外债国家,但其财政状况恶化是最近几年的时间。这使得该国进入我们给出的弱势二星级(净外国资产低于 GDP 的-50%)范畴,并且似乎是稳定地走在了通往一星级和净外债超过年度 GDP 的道路上。今年南非的以美元计价的(10年期)债券收益率上升150个基点,而其货币损失了五分之一的价值,管理这些过度的债务负担变得越来越无法持续下去 — 而当投资者放弃其不一定能获得的利益而认真关注对方的支付能力的时候,这种情况就越发变得糟糕。这就是为什么我们继续主张区分净外国债权人新兴市场和净外国债务人新兴市场;因为当市场越来越看重基本面的时候,拥有净外国资产和支付能力应该主导市场成熟度或增长预期等因素。

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