每日新闻更新 — 硝烟四起的贸易战 The Daily Update – Trade wars everywhere

昨天是一个相当平淡的交易日,不过美联储成员布拉德(Bullard)发表了一些有趣的评论。他警告称,“金融市场信息表明当前的货币政策是中性的,今天甚至是的限制性的”,“具体的说,收益率曲线相当平坦”。他认为,他的“最好的猜测是今年晚些时候(或者)明年某个时候它就会倒挂”,并且“在这样的环境下继续提高政策利率可能导致美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)走得太远,不必要地提高了经济衰退的风险”。不过,他还表示,他在美联储的大部分同事都认为9月份加息的可能性很高,而且就在昨天,12月进一步加息的可能性也增加到了64%。

特朗普总统把跟加拿大的谈判描述为“激烈”,而且认为对美国并不起作用的交易也是“可以的”,但他也表示,“我们应该在接下来的两三天内知道(结果)”,而同时(加拿大的)特鲁多(Trudeau)总理再次宣称,“不会签署对加拿大不利的协议”。特朗普还就韩国贸易协议发表了评论,表明他可能会在本月晚些时候在联合国大会上签署协议。

与此同时,7月份美国贸易逆差以2015年以来最快的速度扩大9.5%至501亿美元,原因是美国对华贸易逆差达到创纪录的368亿美元,(同时)与欧盟的贸易逆差也达到了创纪录的176亿美元。这个结果被认为是由于考虑到进一步征收2000亿美元的关税而提前将进口货物装船所致。这(项征税举措)最早可能会在今天当“评论期”到期时公布,但是,如果我们看一下上一次在关税上的动作,更大的可能是,公告将在几周内发布。

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