每日新闻更新 — 没有希望的众议院:432比202 The Daily Update – A Bleak House: 432 to 202

432比202!我们的读者应该不需要我们介绍这个结果的背景,英国的脱欧在昨天投票后究竟面临什么样的挑战,不妨让我们做一些补充猜测。

离目前第50条规定的3月29日的截止日期只有72天了,但了解欧盟委员会通报的人们都知道,他们的应急计划明确指出,当事方必须“最迟在2019年2月15日之前提交所有必要的草案,以便在主管委员会中安排投票事宜。”因此,目前的可能性是(除非各方都同意推迟该日期),现离达成可接受的协议剩下的时间最多也只有30天了。该协议至少还需115名国会议员和现有支持者的支持(许多议员现在就变得不愿意支持了),当然还有欧盟其他国家的支持。很少有人认为这是可能的;那么除了没有协议的英国脱欧之外还有哪些替代方案呢?

在这次失败的投票之前的辩论期间,首席检察官杰弗里·考克斯(Geoffrey Cox)议员提醒说,虽然撤销第50条在法律上是可行的,但这只仅仅是出于这种预期和意图而为的,而不是作为一种策略对第50条进行撤回和重申以便骗取延期。如果情况真是这样,那就会使得许多一直呼吁这种做的议员的希望破灭。唯一能够延长期限的另一条显而易见的途径是,欧盟同意一个期限的延长,而该期限的延长允许英国议会提出一项议案以得到足够的支持,而且至少有被其他27个成员一致首选或接受的机会。

也许这可能看起来像是第二次公投,在这次公投中欧盟希望留欧派获得胜利,但议会非常谨慎,不表达这种反民主的观点。人们如何抛出这样一个不确定的提案并安排一个可能是三方的投票对政府来说是一个挑战,对于议会和工党来说也是一个挑战,毕竟他们在两年前极力推动并在知情情况下以384的多数票通过了第50条规定的时间表。

也许特蕾莎·梅首相可以转向一个软脱欧方案,也就是挪威模式(不管有多少追加条款),但在对她的不信任投票之前她还没有表达这方面的任何意图。一段时间以来,挪威+模式一直得到跨党派的支持:在这种模式中,除了一个独立的关税同盟之外,英国也是欧洲自由贸易联盟(EFTA)和欧洲经济区(EEA)的成员。脱欧派至少会为获得退出欧洲法院以及共同农业和渔业政策的胜利感到欣慰,但是其中的成本、让步以及缺乏对欧盟的指挥权对许多人来说并没有多少诱惑。此外,尽管有跨党派的支持,但是民意调查显示,“挪威+”模式的协议仍然是一桩不好出手的买卖。此外,鉴于这样做有可能对公众对英国民主的健康和双方的可信度的舆论造成持久性损害,许多“留欧派”不愿意支持第二次公投。

鉴于在投票中相差230票的惨败,获得跟欧盟的商议将需要两党的支持,因为梅不可能使用魔法遥控使得一个可以被所有投票反对该协议的118名保守党反叛分子(还有那些在投票中弃权的少数人,如果他们的投票有可能起到决定性作用的话,那么下次这些人可能不会再弃权)所认可的东西跳出来。说到“后备方案”,尽管北爱尔兰制造业和农业企业看上去好像支持这项方案,而且爱尔兰共和国也认为这个方案有可能是“最佳的妥协办法”,但北爱尔兰民主统一党仍然坚决反对这个方案。投票结束后,欧盟的英国脱欧谈判代表米歇尔·巴尼耶(Michel Barnier)继续认为,爱尔兰边境的“后备方案”“必须成为”该协议的一部分,而北爱尔兰民主统一党的萨米威尔逊(Sammy Wilson)则重申,“‘后备方案’是底线,不能拿来谈判”,还有其他党派的议员的意见:昨天提出的修正案的数量足以说明这一点。人们现在可能会猜测,工党中的许多人可能只是悄悄地希望看到保守党失败。如果像预期的那样,杰里米·科尔(Jeremy Corbyn)提出的不信任投票今天没有成功,他们可能会很高兴地让梅女士继续掌舵这艘沉船,只要他们能够从她的提议中找到一点瑕疵,哪怕一点点,就不会自找麻烦帮她把事情做成。

继昨天的投票之后,欧盟委员会主席让-克洛德·容克表示,这次下议院投票的惨败“增加了无序脱欧的风险”,对于下院投票如此大幅度地反对这个“最好的谈判结果”表示遗憾。容克先生敦促“英国尽快澄清其意图。”梅女士真的没有多少时间去迎接容克先生的挑战,但她必须这样做以证明他错了。

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