每日新闻更新 — 一个乐观的音符并不能奏出一篇和谐的乐章 The Daily Update – An Optimistic Note Does Not a Harmony Make

随着中美会谈进入第三天,欧洲和亚洲市场对双方的努力表示欢迎,并且今天对贸易谈判以“乐观的音符”结束的消息进一步保持乐观。沪深300指数和恒生指数早盘均上涨了2%,但中国官方媒体引用外交部内部人士的话称,美国并没有立即确认已经达成任何协议。预计今天晚些时候中国媒体将公布一份官方声明。

很可能将有一个措辞讲究的关于采取进一步临时措施的声明。在12月份商定的对新的关税进行冻结3个月之后,要想施加足够的压力以得到一个严肃且持久的解决方案还为时尚早。鉴于经济意识形态的巨大差异以及贸易谈判的复杂性,对于大多数观察家来说,要在3月1日截止日期之前达成全方位停止执行关税的综合协议看上去是不可能的。将谈判延长一天肯定不足以让双方就开放中国市场达成共识,要知道北京是依靠国家控制来保护经济免受当前经济增长放缓的影响的,更不用说要为双边贸易逆差制定一个有影响力和令人满意的解决方案了。

与此同时,世界银行再次下调对全球增长的预测,并警告说,世界经济将迎来“乌云密布的天空”。今年《全球经济展望》报告的“乌云密布的天空”主题不仅反映了中国和美国的保护主义和贸易问题,而且“归根结底,增长已经减弱,贸易紧张局势依然严重,一些发展中经济体已经遭受到财政压力,经济发展前景的风险有增无减。”该文件还强调了人们对低收入国家债务增加的担忧以及发达经济体中“生产率和投资增长放缓”所产生的影响。

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