每日新闻更新 — 又是一天,全球增长预期再遭失败 The Daily Update – Another day another flag over growth

又是一天,全球增长预期再遭失败昨天,由于中国报告工业利润下降,卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)援引来自中国的“需求下降”的消息,公布了中国十年来最大的收入下滑。作为工业和建筑行业信心的天然晴雨表,昨天市场出现回落,尤其是工业、科技和能源类股,就连卡特彼勒自己也下跌超过9%。道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔500指数均收跌0.8%。中国放缓的主题仍在四处蔓延,英伟达将其销售预期下调归咎于日益恶化的需求,“特别是在中国”。

当然,有人用同样的说辞来解释导致了去年年底对苹果股票产生巨大打击的原因。本周晚些时候,苹果公司以及亚马逊、脸书、和微软都将公布他们的收益状况,它们的市场交易以较低的水平在谨慎地操作。这些声明似乎近于千篇一律,从三星到英特尔,再从捷豹路虎到美国铝业,个个都在说中国经济增长的放缓是它们最近一段时间无法达到盈利目标的主要原因。然而,FactSet的统计数据显示,2019年迄今为止近70%的收益实际上超过了分析师的预期。

在美中贸易谈判中,炒作和现实之间存在着完美的并置:美国昨天就中国科技巨头华为涉嫌盗窃知识产权的欺诈对该公司提起了指控,跟两个国家的媒体就中国的副总理刘鹤即将在美国进行谈判一事所发表的声明形成了鲜明的对比。国际货币基金组织对2019年的全球增长预测较低,而中国2018年的增长数字为6.6%,是近三十年来的最低点,这显示出中国内部(特别是中产阶级)的需求减弱以及贸易纠纷的影响已经越来越明显。

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