每日新闻更新 — 意见不一致!那就看投票结果吧。The Daily Update – Division! Clear the Lobby

昨天晚上,在许多人看来只是一场惨淡的胜利中,特蕾莎·梅通过排除库珀(Cooper)和格雷夫(Grieve)的修正案,终于传出了一记长长的很难破门的球。这个局面的获得让首相付出了不少的代价。首先,她鞭策反对她自己推出的《脱离欧盟协议》的自己的政党接受布拉迪(Brady)的修正案。该修正案要求她现在重新跟欧盟展开谈判,对后备方案做出“替代性安排”。其次,她还答应,不管欧盟是否对原来的协议有所改变,她都会将该结果带回到众议院,以便在2月14日对此进行投票。

斯佩尔曼(Spelman)的修正案也获得了通过。这样的话,议员们能够把他们反对无协议脱欧的立场记录下来,最终给杰里米·科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)足够的理由和首相进行互动,但同时也可能增加了正是修正案所反对的选项发生的可能性。因为如果这个协议在欧盟那里没有得到足够的让步又回到议会的话,那么更多的(工党)议会议员可能会厚颜无耻地对协议投弃权票甚至投反对票,借此将责任推给保守党,不管发生什么政治和经济上的混乱。更大的可能性是,大量的工党议员会弃权,从而让梅的支持者和担心无协议脱欧的保守党议员的人数远远超过欧洲研究集团的那些强硬派的人数。当然,这并不意味着到2021年年底和过渡期结束的时候不会有一个没有协议的脱欧。

《政治家》媒体说,“议会议员投票支持一个象征性的动议,表明他们反对一项无协议脱欧的立场,但反对利用权力以实际阻止它的发生。”使得这次选举对首相有利的情况是,来自莫塔豪斯(Malthouse)妥协的两个提议所产生的意义 — 像达米安·格林(Damian Green)和尼基·摩根(Nicky Morgan)那样的留欧派以及像雅各布·里斯-莫格(Jacob Rees-Mogg) 和史蒂夫·贝克(Steve Baker)那样的脱欧派接受女王的建议“寻求共同点”。 虽然欧盟官员立即以怀疑的态度指出该建议行不通,但是,在昨天伴随的新闻攻势中,他们在鼓励“脱欧派和留欧派团结起来以便英国在脱欧后可在欧盟之外再展宏图”方面付出的努力还是令人钦佩的:莫格和格林对《太阳报》的读者发出了呼吁,而与此同时摩根和贝克也在《电讯报》中发出了恳求。

英镑兑美元汇率为1.31,今年迄今为止保持在上涨2.8%的水平,仅比近期高点下跌了1便士或0.8%。看来,市场期望英国议会最终批准《脱离欧盟协议》,而不是一种无协议脱欧的情景:要么欧盟作出一些小小的让步,让梅首相顺势称之为“重大且具有法律约束力的改变”,或者更大的可能性是,她无果而归,而工党在2月14日的投票中大面积弃权(而不是投票反对,不惜以无协议脱欧的代价将最终结果推给保守党)。鉴于欧盟文件表明他们将从2月15日开始采取明确的应急措施,目前提议的时间安排似乎让议员们受到了压力,要么接受梅的协议,要么接受其他决议。但是,正如我们所看到的那样,在协议通过之前,其他所有选项仍旧有可能发生,从昨天投票的结果来看,尽管发生的可能性并不大,还是有很多议员支持延期或采取更为软化的脱欧,甚至举行第二次公投。

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