每日新闻更新 — 美联储的会议纪要 The Daily Update – Fed Minutes

昨天在美国联邦公开市场委员会公布的12月份的那次会议纪要中,美联储正式承认,当美联储将其基准价格上调25个基点时,利率的政策路径实际上并“不太清晰”。会议纪要还指出,在目前低通胀的环境下,美联储有条件“对进一步收紧政策保持耐心”;会议纪要补充说,“如果收到的信息触发对经济前景和相关风险(无论是上行还是下行)进行有意义的重新评估,他们就会改变对经济前景的政策”。

 

会议纪要反映出美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周五和两位前美联储主席在一起就坐时的谈话内容 — 政策制定者接下来将“保持耐心”。会议纪要还指出,一些美联储成员认为,近几个月来变得越发明显的风险现在已经逼近,而且有可能会显现出来,美联储近期的举措“仍然在整个经济中发挥作用”。

 

会议纪要显示,“随着本次会议目标范围的增加,联邦基金利率将处于或接近对较长期中性利率估计范围的下限,与会者表示,近期形势的发展,包括金融市场的波动以及对全球经济增长的担忧日益加剧,使得未来政策收紧的程度和时机不如原来清晰”;会议纪要接下来说,“对贸易紧张局势的升级、全球增长的前景以及企业盈利增长的可持续性发展的担忧是导致美国股票价格大幅下跌的因素之一。”

 

今天晚些时候,将有多位美联储成员发言,但有几位有投票权的成员已经发过言。罗森格伦(Rosengren)认为,货币政策目前正在平衡着诸多风险,他认为美联储可以“等待事态变得更加明朗之后再调整政策”,并补充说,若遇经济放缓,他不排除改变资产负债表的政策。埃文斯(Evans)就该话题也发表了看法。埃文斯认为“近期金融市场的发展和国外增长、贸易政策以及可能的财政逆风的不确定性已经积累在一起增加了下行的风险”。

 

在撰写本文时,1月份加息的隐含概率为0.5%,3月份的仅为1.5%,但今年降息的可能性现已超过20%。

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