每日新闻更新 — 海湾合作委员会市场:投资者日益增长的兴趣所在?The Daily Update – GCC: increasing investor interest?

尽管在2018年第四季度因记者Jamal Khashoggi遇害事件引发了国际社会对沙特阿拉伯的强烈抗议,但本周早些时候这个国家仍以两笔美元计价的债券发行筹集了75亿美元,吸引了270亿美元的订单。看来,在没有受到惩罚性制裁的情况下,加上被纳入更大指数的前景,沙特阿拉伯仍然留在投资者的雷达屏幕上。

更大的指数纳入尤其成为将投资者的注意力转向海湾合作委员会市场的主题。例如,摩根大通将于2019年1月31日分阶段将巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋纳入其全球多元化新兴市场债券指数(EMBI-GD)中。预计这将导致市场对主权债券发行需求的大幅增加:根据《国际货币基金组织中东地区对11月份的经济展望》引用的估计数据显示,“指数跟踪基金的被动投资可能达到300至450亿美元的新需求”。

沙特阿拉伯王国2029年到期的40亿美元债券的价格高出美国国债175个基点,而2050到期的35亿美元债券的价格高出美国国债230个基点。若使用A1评级,这些债券的发行在我们的模型上交易只有大约2.6个信用等级的便宜价格。目前,我们更看好卡塔尔,因为它的评级更高(穆迪和标准普尔分别给出 Aa3/AA-),尽管该国的主权债券的价格并不明显地比其他债券便宜:例如,卡塔尔2040年6.4%的债券以4.5%的收益率在进行交易,在我们的模型上它只有大约2.7信用等级的便宜价格,然而,许多与政府相关的名字显示出更大的吸引力。

去年12月,标准普尔将其对卡塔尔的前景从负面调整为稳定,并确认其长期国外评级为AA-:他们期望卡塔尔将“有效地减轻沙特阿拉伯等国对其进行抵制后给经济和金融带来的影响”,还期望它“在2018至2021年期间产生大量经常性财政和外部盈余”。去年年底的时候,卡塔尔也宣布将退出石油输出国组织:我们认为这不会导致它与沙特阿拉伯等国的僵局升级。我们认为这种观点还是有道理的:卡塔尔正在寻求将注意力集中到天然气上的战略,因为它有大量的碳氢化合物的储藏,而生产石油却很少,其产量还不到欧佩克产量的2%。

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