每日新闻更新 — 债券市场是不是也到了不景气的季节?The Daily Update – Is it Kipper Season in the Bond Market?

昨天,美国国债市场似乎对英国的政治“形势”更感兴趣,而不是其国内市场的情况,这表明目前我们的收益的价格可能处于基本上合理的水平。虽然我们现在认为美联储已经从预定的路径转向更高的基金利率;但是现在对数据的严重依赖以及一个月的数据不会成为主要关注点,而是数据路径的趋势,因此收益率曲线也有待进一步证据的出现。

《褐皮书》— 美联储关于当前经济状况的报告,也反映了目前的情况,有美联储地区报告说,“增长从适度转至温和”,这样的地区从上次报告中的10个减少到了8个。由于市场波动、利率上升、能源价格下跌以及贸易和政治上的不确定因素上升,企业虽然还保持乐观但不如以前那么好。制造业增长也放缓,特别是在汽车和能源领域,能源价格下跌导致该行业的公司撤回它们在未来资本支出方面的计划。事实上,纽约和堪萨斯城均报告说出现零增长。

美国国内数据继续处于市场预期疲软的一边,PPI昨日差一点没有达到预期,12月份的纽约帝国制造业指数写入褐皮书之后有一个更大的差距,从之前的+3.9发展为+11.5。然而,这可能是对12月份ISM报告的追赶,这比帝国指标弱得多。

昨天美联储发言人似乎还在等待,因为来自堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的投票成员乔治说,“现在可能是应该暂停我们让利率正常化、研究收到的证据和数据,并核实我们当前位置的好时机”。埃丝特·乔治(Esther George)的立场跟以往有点不同,她通常都会比较强硬。来自达拉斯联邦储备银行的无投票权的罗伯特·卡普兰(Robert Kaplan)说“我们最好给局势的发展留些时间和耐心”,并指出,最近的就业报告是积极的,但它往往是一个滞后指标。

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