每日新闻更新 — 美联储 The Daily Update – The Fed

下一次美联储会议定于1月31日举行,但在此之前,明天我们将得到他们在12月举行的最后会议的记录。市场的焦点将放在美联储暂停加息的步伐以便重新评估现在他们是否已经到达了有可能代表中性水平的利率水平的可能性上。

上周五美联储主席鲍威尔在非农就业报告高出预期之后在亚特兰大发表了讲话。他表示,不存在预先设定的货币政策路径,美联储将保持“耐心”。在谈到非农就业报告时,他对工资通胀数字表示欢迎,但补充说这并没有引起他们对通胀的担忧。

利率期货市场已从两个月前预测的2019年将有两次加息转变为现在预测的今年不会加息,甚至可能降息。还有人猜测美联储缩减资产负债表的过程会发生变化,这表明市场情绪已经发生了多大的变化。

鲍威尔最近的言论可能会帮助人们理解市场对美联储政策走向的看法。先让我们看看他对市场的安抚:他正在“高度敏感地倾听市场发出的信号”以及“通过我们看到的默不作声的通胀读数,我们将耐心观察经济的发展走向”;然后再让我们看看他对下述言论的承诺 — “如果有必要,我们将准备快速灵活地调整政策并使用我们所有的工具来支持经济以便让发展沿轨道正常运行”。

这些评论告诉我们,美联储主席现在几乎完全依赖于数据,因此暂停加息的可能性是有的。本周晚些时候鲍威尔将再次发表讲话,观察家们将从中寻找反映委员会观点的进一步线索。然而,我们也需要考虑其他因素,比如,无投票权的亚特兰大联邦储备银行主席博斯蒂克(Bostic)昨天指出,由于经济数据未公布,政府的关门可能会阻碍美联储的正常工作,当然我们还会受到特朗普总统持续的干预/影响。

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