每日新闻更新 — 非农就业数据方面的悲观情绪 - The Daily Update - Payroll pessimism

在本周疲弱的经济数据之后,焦点将集中在今天下午公布的非农就业数据之上。在数据公布之前,市场把美联储在10月30日的会议上将进一步降息25个基点的可能性预测为86.3%。需要明确的是,在最近的采购经理人指数数据之后,就业领域的疲软现在成为主要的关注点,该数据表明小企业雇用人数在急剧下降,而服务行业的就业状况则是五年或九年来最差的,具体取决于你要使用哪种衡量标准。

去年的经济增加了270万个工作岗位,但今年的预期是190万左右,这将是自2010年以来的最低水平的年度增长。在数据发布之际,市场预计私人部门的职位增加13万;若不考虑受风暴或停工带来的严重影响的那些月份,这是七年来最弱的一年。

总体而言,在过去的几个月中,市场一直在猜想当非农就业数据的发行量有多弱的时候美联储才被迫采取降息的措施,但是现在这一次问题似乎变成了这样:当数据多么坚强的时候美联储才可以不降息。

9月份的非农就业数据为13.6万,两个月调整为+4.5万,因此总体而言是一个强劲的头条新闻,但是平均收入水平持平,相当于同比增长2.9%,远低于预期的3.2%。私人部门的就业人数为11.4万,再次走弱,同时,失业率又从3.7%降至3.5%。

总体而言,这是一个好坏参半的报告,但对于收益率曲线的较长端来讲,通胀率的状况仍然是积极的。价格在此方面的增加并不大,10月份进一步降价的预期已降至80.6%。

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