每日新闻更新 — 全球经济的“同步减速 - The Daily Update - The Global Economy’s “Synchronised Slowdown“

在一两周前经合组织对全球增长的预测降级之后,昨天我们从国际货币基金组织和世界银行那里听到了来得迅速且猛烈的警告。国际货币基金组织新任总裁克里斯蒂娜·格奥尔基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)提出了对全球经济“同步放缓”的担忧,她的理由是,紧张的国际贸易关系是全球制造业和投资活动“大幅减弱”的罪魁祸首,因此全球增长目前已经处于“几乎停滞”的状态。格奥尔基耶娃的前同事也是世界银行的行长戴维·马尔帕斯(David Malpass)指出,他预计全球经济增长“甚至将弱于该组织此前(在6月份)做出的增长预期,并强调说,“英国的脱欧、欧洲经济的衰退和贸易的不确定性”都是主要的影响力量。

在即将于下周发布的国际货币基金组织研究的预览中,格奥尔基耶娃指出,全球贸易冲突可能导致明年全球的GDP减少7000亿美元(约0.8%),并补充说:“在这种情况下,相当于整个瑞士经济的价值将要消失”。值得注意的是,她做出了这样的估计:“在2019年,我们预计全球将有近90%的国家的经济发展将进一步放缓。目前,全球经济正处于同步放缓之中。这意味着今年的经济增长将降至近十年以来的最低水平。”因此,与几年前形成鲜明对比的是,在特朗普发动对中国(欧洲和日本等)的贸易战之前,占全球产出约75%的国家的经济正欢欣地地处于其增长周期的上升阶段。我们期待下周的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年度会议,我们预计,这次会议将对全球经济的前景进行进一步的下调。 

同时,最近来自美国的头条数据表明经济在放缓,一些人警告,经济衰退要比大多数人的预期来得更加迅速。明天将要发布的9月份的消费物价指数(CPI)以及下周公布的零售销售数据将受到市场的密切关注,我们可能会注意到市场对下行局面做出下意识的反应。我们有史以来最大的担忧是,消费者的信心在下降。根据世界大型企业联合会的全球指数,消费者信心指数在2019年第三季度为107,与上一季度持平并处于较高水平。目前看来,只要消费者的工作不受贸易紧张局势的影响,信心就将保持强劲。但是,企业和消费者的信心之间还是存在着实质性的差距的。前者因对贸易局势的担忧和全球制造业放缓而下滑,因此,我们看到消费者信心下降,继而产生对通胀一定程度的担忧,只是一个时间问题。 

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