每日新闻更新 — 或有可转换债券(Coco)The Daily Update – Coco

在我做基金经理时的早期,市场只关心一个数据点,那就是贸易平衡。那是很久以前的事了,现在市场专注于从表面上可表明美国经济持续走强的非农就业人数和失业率。然而,值得注意的是,美国的失业率在2007年5月达到了4.4%的周期性低点,而在仅仅7个月之后的12月份,美国便进入了衰退期。所以仅仅这一个例子就说明,观察非农就业人数并不像有些人想象的那样能给人们带来多少洞察力。  

更有用的倒是反映金融压力的种种迹象。一直阅读我们评论的读者会意识到,我们一直在强调房地产市场是我们的一只“煤矿中的金丝雀”,尽管目前没有那么多的金丝雀。

不过今天可能已经出现了一只新的金丝雀,尽管桑坦德银行(Banco Santander)选择不将他们的债券称作“或有可转换债券”。我们特别不喜欢这种类型的债券(至少当交易接近票面时),因为它有股权的所有缺点而没有它的任何优点。虽然许多市场参与者在买卖这些债券时假设在召回之日可以被赎回,但这是一个非常危险的假设。债券的这种结构就是为了在某些触发因素被启用的情况下转换为股权,虽然这可能会在银行遭遇金融压力时帮银行一把,但是其中的风险被转移到债券持有人的身上。虽然这种息票高于普通债券,但6.25%远远不足以弥补您的风险。

桑坦德银行的解释是,它“有义务评估经济状况并平衡所有投资者的利益”。虽然这可能只是桑坦德自己一个银行的问题,但它也可能反映出整个世界经济正在放缓的事实。因此,我们将密切关注其他银行是否选择效仿桑坦德银行的这种做法,如果它们真的这样做,我们将在斯特拉顿大街的观望台上增加另一只金丝雀。  

我们仍然处于投资等级范围的高端,平均信用评级为单A,因为我们坚信,来自富裕国家的高质量的债券才是全球经济(特别是美国经济)长期增长的前景继续恶化的背景下唯一可以持有的东西。

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