每日新闻更新 — 沙特阿美石油公司进军天然气 The Daily Update – Aramco is Stepping on the Gas

一段时间以来,阿美石油公司一直在公开寻求向蓬勃发展的全球天然气行业进军。2019年可能是我们看到全球最大的石油出口国进行大量投资的一年,将其与美国、俄罗斯和澳大利亚快速扩张的天然气行业联系起来。他们的首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔(Amin Nasser)昨天宣布,希望到2030年,他们将天然气日产量从140亿立方米提高到230亿立方米,并在国内项目和海外收购方面投资高达1500亿美元,他们认为这是一个“非常有利可图的”机会。

尽管近年来全球液化天然气市场的竞争日益激烈,但随着各国向低污染能源过渡,以及全球能源需求的总体增长,需求增长有望保持。世界平均在能源消费上的支出占GDP的10%以上,石油和煤炭仍然分别占据着此消费比例的30%以上,目前天然气占总能源供应量的22%左右。可再生能源仍然只占全球能源供应总量的10%多一点,即使能够实现在未来几十年内使这一领域翻两番的乐观目标,日益增长的全球能源需求仍将继续顽固地主要依赖化石燃料。尽管在欧洲,可再生能源在新能源项目和生产中占据了巨大的份额(约90%),可是这种情况在其他地方却不是这样;向天然气过渡已经成为一种更为普遍的趋势,它是一种更为现实的竞争者,并将成为世界上(污染更小)的主要能源来源,或许在10年内超过煤炭。

自20世纪70年代中期以来,阿美石油公司往往将天然气视为一种非主流产业,其适度的产量主要用于国内需求和炼油厂的原料。但现在,它并不是唯一一个寻求(产业)“多样化”以更加雄心勃勃地进军天然气产业的石油巨头。许多像壳牌这样的石油巨头在展望该行业的未来和他们的成长市场时都将自己定位为国际天然气公司,(不要忘记,即使是那些上路的电动汽车,也将越来越多地由天然气驱动,因为全球不断增长的电力消耗将占到未来天然气需求的一半)。

20多年以来,卡塔尔一直是液化天然气出口的重要参与者,主要通过横跨中东和纳基拉特(Nakilat)的海豚管道出口,由其全球最大的液化天然气油轮船队负责,主要出口至日本、韩国、印度和欧洲。但最近澳大利亚的大量投资使他们在最近几个月内取代了卡塔尔成为最大的液化天然气出口国。此外,美国页岩油工业的爆发推动了对出口过剩天然气的投资,使他们很快将液化天然气出口能力增加三倍,以供应全球25%的市场。阿美石油公司已经与美国最大的炼油厂莫迪瓦(Motiva)合作,并计划再投资100亿美元。他们还与诺瓦泰克(Novatek)谈判以成为俄罗斯北极液化天然气项目的主要合作伙伴。

从某种程度上来说,天然气仍然是一个区域性市场,其价格与亨利枢纽(Henry Hub)在大西洋两岸的供求关系更为密切,而在亚洲,各地的价格大体上与石油挂钩。虽然这将随着液化天然气运输量的增长而改变,但亚洲的合同价格仍可能是美国的两倍左右(过去曾高达5至6倍)。鉴于临近中国,持续增长的澳大利亚液化天然气行业在中国的投资将继续保持对阿美石油公司的吸引力。在大约50个进口液化天然气的国家中,中国是最典型的能源饥渴型天然气进口国。虽然日本和韩国多年来一直是主要进口国,但中国在2017年超过韩国,去年首次超过日本(一边的中国同比增长了33%,而令一边的日本在重启核电站之后同比下降了17%),成为最大的天然气进口国。到今年年底,中国“对天然气的迅猛追求”将使其占到国内能源需求的10%,如果我们拿发达国家的天然气一般占其能源需求的25%作为例子来做参照的话,这里还有进一步的增长空间。

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