每日新闻更新 — 欧洲央行和英国央行的预测 The Daily Update – ECB/BoE forecasts

昨天欧洲央行和英国央行都大幅降低了对今年经济增长的预测,把他们目前的担心归咎于太多因素的缠绕,从贸易摩擦和中国经济的放缓到政治的不稳定和“英国脱欧的迷雾”。欧洲央行现在认为,欧盟年经济增长率仅为1.3%,低于3个月前预测的1.9%,而英国央行认为英国的年经济增长率为1.2%,明显地略差一些,低于11月份预期的1.7%。这将是自2009年以来表现最弱的增长。当天早些时候,西班牙已经报告说,该国的工业生产同比大幅下降6.2%。今天上午发布的数字称,意大利的工业生产同比下降了5.5%。

英国央行的行长马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)在对经济进行预测后在新闻发布会上给出了一个复杂的评论。他认为,“英国经济的基本面是强健的。金融行业的弹性也很好。企业的资产负债表强劲,劳动力市场牢固”,但是,他警告称,“英国脱欧的迷雾正在导致经济数据中的短期波动,更根本的是,它正在经济和商业领域造成一系列的紧张情绪”。他接着说,英国有50%的公司在应对无协议脱欧的可能性面前举手无措,而另外50%的公司认为,他们在为这个最坏的可能做准备,已经使出了浑身的解数。令人担忧的是,卡尼警告说,英国经济远离消费的积极再平衡已经暂停,认为自英国脱欧公投以来商业投资不足按照国际标准是一种“绝对离群值”。

在布鲁塞尔那边,欧盟委员会也大幅削减了对前景的展望,而其中对意大利的下调幅度最大。欧盟委员会现在认为,这个南欧国家今年的经济将仅以0.2%的速度增长,低于此前预测的1.2%。欧盟委员会在一项声明中表示,“欧元区增长势头的大规模丧失可归因于外部环境中支持能力的减弱,包括全球贸易增长的放缓以及贸易政策的高度不确定性”,还表示,“但是,许多国内的因素也起了一定的作用”。由于那些数量不少的因素仍在发挥作用(英国的脱欧、美国和中国的贸易摩擦,以及现在法国和意大利之间的争执),那些已经出现在地平线上的滚滚乌云正在变得越来越黑。

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