每日新闻更新 — 美联储暂停行动,煤矿中的德国金丝雀 The Daily Update – Fed on hold, German canaries in the coalmine

 

许多读者都知道,我们对前景的估计是,在利用资产负债表增加或撤回流动性的同时,美联储和基金利率的行动会暂停一段时间。此外,我们还认为,进一步的加息和减息的可能性都是一样的,要看经济数据如何发展。今天早晨,在美联储发布1月30日的会议纪要之后,我们看到市场认为今年要进行一次加息的可能性已降至3.6%,而有一次减息的可能性现在已经增长至6.7%,目前非常均衡。

这次会议中强硬派占有一点点、几乎是难以感觉到的优势,因为“几个”与会者辩驳称,认为加息可能在今年晚些时候会比较合适,“不过条件是,通胀结果高于他们的基线前景”,而“其他几个人”则表示,如果经济“按预期发展”,“在今年晚些时候”加息可能是比较合适的决定。在谈到资产负债表的管理的问题上,会议纪要指出,“几乎所有与会者都认为,尽快宣布一项计划,在今年晚些时候停止减持美联储的资产是大家一致希望的”。

会议纪要公布后,美联储副主席克拉丽达(Clarida)表示,联邦公开市场委员有实力保持耐心,让数据进来,以便对前景有更好的了解。人们虽说注意到经济非常接近美联储的就业和通胀目标,但今年他们可能不去变动利率的可能性也是存在的。这要完全数据于依赖呀!

在今天早上的欧洲,我们看到了2月份面对制造业的德国采购经理人指数(PMI),从预期的49.8降至74个月的低点47.6。尽管该指数的服务因素较高,导致了整体综合指数超出预期,但在出口进一步大幅下滑的背景中,订单量显示出6年半以来的最剧烈的下滑。对商业的调查报告显示,鉴于贸易摩擦和欧洲内部竞争压力的不断增加,制造业的前景并不乐观。

虽然这份报告是我们“经济煤矿中的另一只金丝雀”,但我们仍然认为,欧洲现有的负实际收益率他日将引发该地区的极端问题,一种类似日本经济的形势并不像人们原来所设想的那样美好。今天伦敦时间12点30分要到欧洲央行去听1月份的会议报告。祝大家愉快。

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