每日新闻更新 — 美联储的耐心和欧元区的病人 The Daily Update – Fed Patience and Eurozone Patients

随着今天晚些时候美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要的出台以及刚刚开始的下一轮贸易谈判的展开,这两个动态政策领域的清晰度仍然是市场的主要驱动力,特别是在美国和中国经济面临增长阻力的情况下。市场将密切关注美联储政策制定者的前景,但已预计利率将在2019年保持不变,这种隐含概率为72%,预计到2020年1月底将降息0.25个百分点的概率为22.4%。根据英国《金融时报》的报道,在美联储大角度转向“保持耐心”之后,今年股票和债券都以更加宽松的势头反弹:其中高质量的企业债券指数标志着“自1995年以来的最佳年度开局”。

尽管在3月之前预计不会有更清晰的计划,但美联储究竟是如何从“进一步逐步增加(利率)”转变为“保持耐心”的,会议记录的阅读者不仅希望得到对这个问题的澄清,还将寻找美联储在是否计划在今年全面放松其资产负债表(正如一两个地方美联储负责人所赞成的那样)的问题上是否有任何暗示。鉴于1年期和10年期国债之间的期限利差最近已经徘徊在9个基点左右,在整个2019年期间,不需要多久就会达到反转的收益率曲线(超过现有的1-5年期的反转)。这种反转现象就是详细记录的经济衰退的指标 — 但它本身只是某种程度上的微弱的信号而已,只能表明未来12至24个月内会有潜在的负增长。尽管如此,已有大量文字警告说,超级大国的经济增长受阻将对全球产生影响:鉴于美国和中国市场的重要性,人们普遍预计它们将引领全球商业周期。

但最近出现的令人担忧的事情是,欧元区无意中在挑战美国引领全球商业周期陷入衰退。意大利已经陷入了衰退,作为(欧洲发展)动力的德国也只是侥幸躲过了这一劫;欧元区在第三季度出现负增长后,第四季度的增长率为0%,据此其实际增长已跌至主权债务危机以来的最低点。欧洲经济衰退对全球经济增长的影响似乎比对美国经济逐渐形成的担忧更是一种触手可及的风险,美欧贸易谈判中的农业贸易陷入的僵局似乎与美国和中国之间在知识产权上的分歧一样都难以解决。正如来自德国马歇尔基金会智库的彼得·蔡斯(Peter Chase)所说,“双方都把自己的牌放在桌子上,结果发现他们玩的游戏好像不一样”。如果美国确实对欧洲汽车业征收25%的关税,这可能是令欧洲及其他地区增长折腰的最后一股力量;即使特朗普足够明智可以避免这种边缘政策,但是欧洲的增长将继续在多个层面上表现得更加脆弱。

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