每日新闻更新 — 第一部分:金融市场应该庆祝鲍威尔的支点吗?The Daily Update – Part I: Should Financial Markets Celebrate Powell’s Pivot?

我们的宏观经济学家鲍勃·盖伊(Bob Gay)撰写了一篇题为《金融市场应该庆祝鲍威尔的支点吗?》的评论,以下是该评论的第一部分。

在1月29日至30日召开的美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议之后举行的新闻发布会上,美联储主席鲍威尔(Powell)表示,董事会决定在实施未来的调整政策利率时要保持“耐心”。媒体立即将他的有别于过去两年强制推行的向正常化进军的政策的这一声明称为“支点”。该政策稳步提高了基金利率并开始收缩臃肿的美联储资产负债表。金融市场欢欣鼓舞,报以股票、长期债券和一般风险资产的大幅反弹。可以肯定的是,美联储正在把脚从制动踏板上移开,并且愿意观望未来几个月的经济发展情况。当然,我想到的问题是,美联储为什么要开辟一条新的路线?难道他们知道我们不了解的什么事情吗?

异步的美国经济。公平地说,最近几个月出现了许多危险信号,表明全球范围内的经济和金融压力。到2018年底,信用利差明显扩大;全球贸易流动受到美国关税和暗中较劲的贸易战的影响;还有脱欧谈判在欧洲造成的不确定性。普通的新兴经济体,特别是中国,都报道称它们的经济增长放缓。大宗商品价格下跌,金融市场剧烈波动。然而,这些发展都没有阻止美联储在12月份的加息,这在很大程度上是因为美国经济仍然是所谓的“强劲”,而且通胀稳定在美联储的长期目标 — 2%之内。另一只鞋似乎注定要落在美国,但美国雇主在1月份继续大量雇用工人。

那么为什么要改变注意?首先,鉴于联邦基金利率已经回到接近2.5%的水平,货币条件更接近“中性”。根据联邦公开市场委员会12月份的预测,从长期来看,政策利率的中心趋势为2.5%至3%,这跟董事会对名义中性利率的看法是一致的。简而言之,联邦公开市场委员会的成员们现在认为,实际利率的“新中性”约为零至½%。随着12月份的那次加息,货币政策归于这个范围之内,可能重要的是,不再被定性为对储户的金融抑制。请注意,该范围的下限为2.5%,是从9月预测的2.8%下调至此,通过这一举措有一扇通往暂停的大门打开了。

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