每日新闻更新 — 《金融市场应该庆祝鲍威尔的支点吗?》(第二部分)The Daily Update – Part II: Should Financial Markets Celebrate Powell’s Pivot?

摘自我们的宏观经济学家鲍勃·盖伊(Bob Gay)撰写的评论《金融市场应该庆祝鲍威尔的支点吗?》的第二部分

另外两个因素的发展可能让美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的鹰派人物有理由停下来思考。首先,自12月会议以来,市场对通胀预期的衡量显著下降。然而,这种解释并不非常具有说服力,因为美联储倾向于依赖对通胀预期收集的调查数据,如果跟可能受到诸如油价下跌这一类短期发展情况影响的市场衡量相比较,这些数据往往更稳定。

另外一种因素,在我看来是另一个更有说服力的证据,就是在年底的时候商业银行对贷款标准的收紧。纽约联邦储备银行每季度收集的调查数据可能在1月份的会议之前提供给美国联邦公开市场委员会。从表面上看,除了两个例外,这些数据看起来相对温和。举例来说,2018年的大部分时间里,越来越多的银行一直在加强对消费者贷款的标准。

第二个也是最重要的是,由于美联储的资金成本接近于零,过去两年一直强势向其主要企业客户推销商业和工业(C&I)贷款的银行突然转向更严格的标准。了解这些数据的过去的人们不难看出,这种贷款标准的突然变化往往就是经济疲软的前兆。事实上,在一项对预示金融危机的主要指标的详尽的研究中,纽约联邦储备银行研究人员只能找到一种预测性指标 — 即商业和工业贷款的借贷标准 — 给出了有意义的对经济衰退的预告。提前时间平均约为六个月。显而易见,这些数据尚未达到令人关注的“门槛”水平,但今年是值得人们仔细观察的一年。

传统上人们总喜欢把利率水平归咎于经济衰退,其实,使经济陷入混乱的是可以得到信贷的这种条件,或者准确地说,是缺乏信贷的这种情况。随着美联储正常化其资产负债表,新兴经济体已经感到美元的短缺。商业银行采用的更为严格的标准也可能揭示美国债务的这一软肋,这次包括了杠杆贷款,特别是所谓的“私人市场”中的那种非银行、非债券性质的直接贷款,估计这些贷款的总额已经达到了7000亿美元。某种形式的风险或不良行为总能预示出每一次经济衰退,而在大多数情况下,信贷市场既是这些经济衰退的载体,也是这些经济衰退的催化剂。

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