每日新闻更新 — 耐心并灵活的美联储 The Daily Update – Patient and Flexible Fed

正如预期的那样,美联储在1月份的会议上决定维持利率不变,在随后发表的声明被视为带有温和的倾向,因为它指出要暂停紧缩周期并敦促大家对美国加息周期是否已达到顶峰进行市场辩论。杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell )在新闻发布会上也采取了温和的态度,承认“加息的主张有所减弱”,而且通胀风险“似乎已经减弱”。他还指出,“我们的政策利率目前处于委员会对中性的估计范围之内”,并且“我们认为我们的政策立场是恰当的”。随后美国股市反应强劲,美国国债收益率小幅走低,美元指数(DXY)走软。

联邦公开市场委员会声明的主要措辞变化包括对下列评论的删除 — 根据委员会的判断,在目标范围内的“某些进一步的逐步增长”与持续的经济扩张及其通胀目标是一致的。取而代之的是,声明指出,委员会“决定维持让联邦基金利率处于2.25%至2.5%的目标范围”。该声明承认正在疲软下来的经济背景:对经济活动的描述被降级为以“稳定的速度”增长而不是以“强劲的速度”增长。此外,该声明还删除了“委员会认为经济前景的风险大致上平衡”的评论。该声明折射出条件的变化和良好的通货膨胀的背景;声明提到美联储在实现其促进最大程度就业和价格稳定的目标的问题上采取的谨慎方法;声明指出,“对联邦基金利率目标范围采取何种调整才有可能有益于支持这些结果,委员会需作出判断,与此同时委员会将保持耐心。”

联邦公开市场委员会还发布了关于资产负债表正常化的声明。声明指出,“委员会继续将联邦基金利率目标范围的变化视为调整货币政策立场的主要手段。”然而,他们强调了资产负债表正常化的灵活方法,还强调说,假如有必要“委员会随时准备动用所有的工具,包括改变其资产负债表的规模和组成”。

美联储向“耐心”立场的转变应进一步支持美国国债和高级别债券。这些债券在过去3个月内强劲反弹,10年期国债收益率从11月8日的3.24%下降至目前的2.66%。从短期来看,明天的非农就业数据将决定短期业绩,但全球经济背景表明,很快会就有更多的金丝雀进入煤矿。

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