每日新闻更新 — 俄罗斯:国家的状况和发展 The Daily Update – Russia: State of the Nation & Growth

俄罗斯2018年国内生产总值出乎意料地增加到2.3%,而市场对增长的预期仅为1.8%,而且央行对增长的预测也只有1.5-2%。值得注意的是,2018年,俄罗斯统计局在将今年前11个月来自建筑的贡献上调的时候,考虑了亚马尔液化天然气项目这一因素。促进2018年增长的其他潜在因素包括世界杯,随着石油输出国组织对产量的削减得到缓解以及亚马尔液化天然气的产量增加,石油产量有了一些增加。重要的是,经济部表示,该数据被视为反映的是一次性因素而非可持续发展的增长,预计2019年的增长率将为1.3%。             

俄罗斯面临一系列结构性挑战,将潜在的估计限制在1.5%-2%左右。一方面是生产力,需要提高机构实力并放松商务发展的条件,但另一方面是不利的人口问题。 

根据俄罗斯统计局的数据,俄罗斯的人口自2008年以来首次出现下降。过去几年出生率一直在下降,但去年移民的涌入也未能挽救人口的下降。提高俄罗斯经济增长率一直是俄罗斯政府关注的焦点,本周早些时候俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)在“国家状况”的演讲中特别谈到了这一问题:“俄罗斯在人口统计方面进入了一个极具挑战性的时期”;他警告大家,“出生率正在下降” 。他在这次演讲中指出,俄罗斯克服了“21世纪初的负面的人口发展趋势”,并表示希望在2023年至2024年初恢复自然人口增长率。因此,普京强调了一系列支持家庭的措施,包括增加儿童福利;对家庭税收的减免反映了“孩子越多,税收就越低”的政策,此外还增加了残疾人的支助金。

用以解决妨碍增长的结构性顽疾的举措令人鼓舞,而且俄罗斯审慎的财政管理(通过引入财政法规和(不受欢迎的)退休年龄的增加而进一步得到加强)、低债务水平、强大的外部地位和灵活的汇率使得国力增加。这些财政优势和缓冲使该国能够减轻来自低油价期和国际制裁的影响。有了这种财政法规,俄罗斯得以在油价恢复期间补充其储备,并为总统在演讲中谈到的那些项目提供资金支持。此外,正如穆迪本月早些时候在(对俄罗斯的)升级中所指出的那样,“在评级机构看来,可能的新制裁(即未来几个月内最可能出现此类冲击的根源)的影响可能会受到遏制而不会对该国的信用状况造成实质性损害。”

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.