每日新闻更新 — 销售还是没有销售:这是个问题 The Daily Update – Sales or no sales that is the question

最近与我们交谈过的读者都会知道,我们对美联储的前景的观点是暂停脚步,而且我们认为,就联邦基金对利率下一步要采取的行动而言,加息的可能性和实际上会发生的降息的可能性是相等的。我们认为美联储将利用其资产负债表而非基金利率以便在高度依据数据期间增加/撤回流动性。

迄今为止的数据一直在支持着美联储维持其目前对所公布的美国供应管理协会(ISM)和非农就业数据的立场,显示出经济持续增长的势头。据报道,消费物价指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)的同比增长率上涨了0.01%,但是,除此之外,它们的通货膨胀均低于市场的预期,而轶事证据显示假期过后有一段强劲的销售期。

因此,昨天的12月份零售销售报告严重偏离了市场的预期(小幅上涨0.1%),报告显示大面积下降了1.2%,除了汽车、天然气、建材和食品服务之外,(零售对照组的指数)均下降了1.7%。现在让我们不要把赌注押在一次对数据的发布上,但也不能掉以轻心。美联储理事布雷纳德(Brainard)很快表示,该报告提醒人们经济面临“下行的风险”以及“下行风险肯定已经增加”,并补充说,美联储还必须“慎重考虑”反映外国经济增长疲软和海外财务状况收紧的新证据。

这个数字到底是由于天气或政府关门引起的,还是因为人们对美国经济越来越担忧所致还有待于观察,但它确实认为美联储应保持对前景的耐心;我们强烈建议目前不要贸然行事。

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