每日新闻更新 — 戴上锡头盔,当心意大利债务(爆炸)The Daily Update – Tin Helmets, Italian debt

很长一段时间以来,我们对意大利的银行都有一个很大的担忧,因此在它们那里我们没有(风险)敞口,因为我们担心市场就意大利的债务和政治问题产生的情绪波动会随时蔓延。我们认为,这对欧盟来说是一个巨大的风险。

昨天看到了一篇研究意大利债务的有趣报道;报道称,意大利的公共借款已经达到1.5万亿欧元,主要集中在意大利银行的资产负债表上,另外还有来自欧洲其他主要银行的4250亿欧元。其根据是彭博社去年6月底对欧洲银行业管理局的数据进行的分析结果。法国银行对意大利的风险敞口最大,主要集中在法国巴黎银行和法国农业信贷银行,占整个法国风险敞口总额2855亿欧元的2404亿欧元。紧随其后的是德国银行的587亿欧元,其中德意志银行和德国商业银行的风险敞口就达到420亿欧元。接下来是比利时的德克夏银行,风险敞口为231亿欧元,连资历和声誉俱佳的巴克莱银行的风险敞口也有174亿欧元之多,由此可见这种风险敞口分布得有多宽。

现在给这种困境雪上加霜的是,意大利的经济衰退,以及意大利政府今年需要发行的大约4000亿欧元的债务;有报道说,这样做仅仅在一年之内就要耗尽欧洲稳定机制的救助资金的4100亿欧元,不难看到,一场动荡局面正在形成。

不错,由于家庭财富很高,意大利目前仍然拥有4星级的NFA评分,但这种财富似乎处于瑞士的卢加诺(Lugano)的房地产和银行内,而不在意大利的银行内。因此,意大利需要外国投资的流动,当然,处于这种情况就不太妙了。

在过去的三年里,我们已经看到了对意大利银行实施的七次救助计划,如果有计划再次期望德拉吉行长以他们自己的方式大把大把地扔钱的话,劝大家最好先把锡头盔戴好吧;他的欧洲央行行长的任期马上就要结束了,当然,就在安吉拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)提出的“后备方案建议”之时,她的权力和人们对她的支持的光环也在悄然失色。

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