每日新闻更新 — 贸易战和经济增长 The Daily Update – Trade Wars & Growth

联合国贸易和发展会议(贸发会议)关于“贸易战争带来的痛苦与收益”的讨论会探讨了一项新的贸发会议的研究结果,分析了美中关税的影响以及原来威胁要在3月份按计划增加关税的问题。去年12月,美国将原来威胁要对2000亿美元的从中国进口商品征收关税提高到25%的计划推迟至3月1日,以便有时间进行谈判。贸发会议的寇克-汉密尔顿(Coke-Hamilton)女士指出,“我们的分析表明,虽然双边关税在保护国内公司方面并不是很奏效,但在限制目标国家的贸易方面不失为非常有效的工具”。注意到关税的扭曲效应之后,她表示,“中美双边贸易将会下降并被来自其他国家的贸易所取代”,因为关税会改变全球竞争力,使得并未遭受直接影响的制造商从中受益,从而导致贸易流向的变化。

有趣的是,该研究估计,“在受美国征收关税影响的中国出口的2500亿美元的贸易额中,约82%将被其他国家的公司所获得,约12%将由中国公司保留,由美国公司获得的出口份额只有约6%。同样,在受中国征收关税影响的美国出口的约850亿美元的出口额中,约有85%将被其他国家的公司所获得,美国公司将保留不到10%的份额,而中国公司只能获得约5%的份额。”说到赢家,该研究指出,欧洲、日本、墨西哥和加拿大将是明显的受益者。欧洲可以获得700亿美元的贸易(来自中国的约500亿美元和来自美国的约200亿美元),这相当于其出口额的大约0.9%,而墨西哥200亿美元的潜在受益将达到其出口额的约6%。

然而,该报告还警告说,“负面的全球影响可能会成为主导力量”,影响到“依旧脆弱的全球经济”。保护主义升级的一个风险是“贸易紧张局势可能演变为货币战争,导致以美元计价的债务更难如期清偿。”在全球经济正处于一个关键时刻的节骨眼上,在3月份截止日期之前美中谈判取得积极进展是非常重要的。最近美国财政部长努钦(Mnuchin)把跟中国总理刘鹤(Liu He)的会晤描述成“非常富有成效”,并表示“我们正在付出巨大的努力争取在这个最后期限到来之前达成协议。这是我们的目标。”努钦和美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)很快将前往北京展开进一步的谈判。

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