每日新闻更新 — 鸽派的欧洲央行和复杂的美国就业形势 The Daily Update - Dovish ECB and Mixed US Employment

在全球经济增长放缓以及人们开始对经济衰退产生担忧的情况下,欧洲央行昨日继美联储和英格兰银行之后,有效地冻结了利率。欧洲央行表现出的温和超出预期,宣布在2019年剩下的时间里将利率保持在目前的历史水平(核心0%和存款-0.4%)。对欧元区2019年经济增长的预测也从原来的1.7%急剧下调至1.1%。欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi )表示,2018年第四季度该地区的发展已跌至0.2%;而有一半是在2018年前两个季度实现的。美中贸易战和英国脱欧结果的不确定性作为拖累欧元区增长的两个关键因素被凸显出来。

对2019年通货膨胀的预测也从原来的1.6%下调至1.2%。欧洲央行通过一系列有针对性的长期再融资战略(TLTRO)宣布了新一轮廉价银行贷款计划;从9月份开始,到2021年的年底结束。在这次政策会议过后,欧元对美元暴跌,下降到四个月以来的低点,基准10年期德国国债的收益也跌至2016年以来的最低水平。

我们清楚地看到,全球经济放缓仍然是一个日益严重的令人担心的问题,特别是在美中贸易谈判结果并不明朗之际。就在今天早上,我们看到了低于预期的中国的二月份贸易数据;若将农历假期季节和其他时间分开的话,这些数字就不像最初表现得那么糟糕。这里的区别在于,利率已经处于这样被打压的水平,如果再需要宽松,欧洲央行就无计可施了,而中国那边仍然有可以调用的大量火力,包括它的那笔稳定的3.09万亿美元的外汇储备。

今天下午的美国就业数据相当复杂,2月份的就业岗位仅仅增加了2万个,而预期是18万,1月份的外部报告为增加30.4万。失业率从原来的4%降至3.8%,而重要指标 — 平均时薪 — 从3.3%上升至3.4%,月度环比回升至0.4%。奇怪的是,参与率稳定在63.2%,鉴于这标题数字,我们原来期待它会有所变动。

之后,美国国债市场因为标题数字而反弹,10年期的价格立刻上涨了大约20美分,不过,在撰写这篇评论时,价格又回到公布前的交易水平。从广义上讲,似乎市场正在为当前的反弹寻找原因,并且确实有一种积极的言外之意。虽说并不能肯定,但在欧洲央行的宣布之后,昨晚美元指数突破97.20的技术目标,美元的套利交易有可能是上述的原因之一。

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