每日新闻更新 — 美联储的烟花之夜 The Daily Update – Fed Fireworks Night

昨晚美国债券(UST)市场强劲反弹,因为“耐心的”美联储几乎将“冬眠”标记为夏季新的利率态势。

十七名委员中有十一名将他们原来认为有两次加息的观点改为今年没有进一步的加息;根据市场预测,美联储的下一步行动将为一次减息的可能性从30%增至50%,这跟我们对长期形势的预期是相吻合的。

美联储主席鲍威尔(Powell)在两天会议结束后表示,“我们的政策利率处于中性区间,经济正处于大致发展的趋势,通胀接近目标,失业率低于4%。现在正是我们保持耐心、观看、等待并查看情况如何发展的大好时机。”

美联储还表示,资产负债表径流将在9月份结束,据他们估计,届时其余额将略高于3.5万亿美元。从10月份开始,高达200亿美元到期的代理抵押贷款支持证券将再次投资于美国国债市场的一系列到期债券,这实际上使得美联储多年来首次除了对票据投资之外也将在长期资产上投资。

美国国债市场的最大变化是五年期债券,下跌了9.5个基点,收益率为2.32%,目前通过收益率为2.39%的两年期债券进行价格为7个基点的交易。曲线出现牛陡,30年期债券仅下跌5个基点,尽管它在价格走势方面表现最佳,其次是十年期的。我们的信贷情况也跟这些变化相吻合,在我们所持有的资产中,十年期债券升至0.75点到一点之间,而更久年限的债券则升至1.5点左右。

我们现在等待英格兰银行在中午12点的宣布会,不过在昨晚美联储噼里啪啦的烟花之后,这里预计连一点“咝咝作响”的声音都不会有。

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