每日新闻更新 — 市场对海湾合作委员会国家的债券有需求 The Daily Update - GCC bonds in demand

海湾合作委员会市场更大程度地被纳入指数,继续引起投资者对这个市场的兴趣并吸引着他们对这个市场的投资:例如,摩根大通从2019年1月31日起分阶段将巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋纳入其全球多元化新兴市场债券指数(EMBI-GD)。如果了解到这一点,当年初至今在稳定的业绩以及整个地区的利差普遍收紧的情况下卡塔尔发行了5年期/10年期/30年期三期100亿美元的债券后重返一级市场的时候,人们就不会对此感到惊奇了。这就是投资者的需求(订购量达到500亿),本次的发行量最终高达120亿美元,这些发行的债券高出美元的利差缩小了20-25个基点,分别到90个基点、135个基点和175个基点。鉴于穆迪/标准普尔/惠誉国际分别给出Aa3/AA-/AA-这些很高的评级,以及强劲的基础面和有吸引力的估价,卡塔尔仍然是我们青睐的该地区最受欢迎的债券发行国家之一。例如,若使用AA-评级,卡塔尔国国债的利率为4%的2029到期的那一批国债在我们的模型上显示出大约3.4个信用等级的便宜价格。

阿曼也上了新闻,不过是因为别的原因,穆迪将其对该国的评级从原来的Baa3下调至Ba1(负面展望):“导致这次降级的关键因素是穆迪的预计 — 阿曼的财政整顿的范围受到政府的经济目标和社会稳定目标的制约,这种程度比起原来的评估要严重得多。因此,在油价不景气的环境下,阿曼的财政指标将相应地减弱到跟较低的评级保持一致的水平。”虽然他们承认“阿曼内在的信贷优势”,但他们认为该国的财政和经常账户的赤字“使阿曼必须持续依赖外部资金的源源不断的流入,同时也表明该国存在着重大的外部脆弱性。”

阿曼现在被所有3家评级机构评为“垃圾”级别。然而,在标准普尔/惠誉国际先前已经对其评级进行下调的情况下,这一举措基本上也是人们预料之中的事情。由于今年阿曼的主权曲线的良好表现,不断增长的投资者对该地区的兴趣为该国提供了支持(尽管阿曼已被纳入摩根大通指数);惠誉在2018年12月份将其对阿曼的评级下调至次级投资等级,在年底的一段狂热时期之后,近来(市场中)有一种“追赶”的成份:例如,利息为5.375%的2027到期的阿曼国债高出美国国债的利差从1月初的485个基点收缩至撰写本文时的大约396个基点。昨天,阿曼的曲线在开盘时有几分波动,并有10-15个基点的扩大,不过当市场稳定下来之后,在收盘时的利差仅仅显示出小范围的扩大。

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