每日新闻更新 — 缓和的通货膨胀说起话来声音还挺大 The Daily Update - Muted Inflation Speaks Volumes

今天得到了美国的核心通胀数据,环比上涨只有0.1%,进一步缓解了人们对即刻就可能失控的通胀产生的担忧;和去年同期相比,核心数字为2.1%(低于预期和上个月数据0.1%),而实际平均时薪同比增长1.9%。对于所有那些幸运的会计师来说,通货膨胀率最高的类别是“税款准备”,其中数据显示价格飙升了13.8%。尽管如此,由于食品价格大幅上涨,以及天然气价格在四个月内首次上涨,对平均家庭钱包的大面积影响可能会大于数字显示出的影响。

自美联储采取“保持耐心”的立场以来,与去年相比,人们对通胀的担忧已经缓解。(伦敦的)凯投宏观(Capital Economics)指出,“随着标题消费者价格指数(CPI)通胀率二月份从1.6%降至两年半以来的低点1.5%,核心通胀从2.2%降至4个月以来的低点2.1%,美联储似乎为保持耐心的立场以及把利率保持不变的政策延长一段时间的决定找到了理由。” 事实上,许多人现在都同意这个观点:毫无疑问,美联储目前已经靠边站,隐含概率现在显示,到2020年1月降息的可能性为30%,而利率仍然保持不变的机会为70%。与此形成对比的是,不到三个月之前(来自美联储上次加息后得到的12月19日的数字),还有人预测,2019年加息的隐含概率为38%。

虽然能源成本下降(特别是在美国的页岩气和天然气飞速发展之后)近年来已经成为家庭经济增长的关键因素,但核心数字对于美联储的经济预测过程仍然起着更为重要的作用。此外,像个人消费支出(PCE)(在月末时公布)这样的核心数据是更加稳定的测量通胀的方法,美联储在很大程度上就依赖于这些方法以及与商界领袖的持续对话。目前所有这些都指向持续存在的良性通胀环境,不过美联储主席鲍威尔的言论也仍旧没有过时,“前景中没有任何要求立即做出的政策反应,特别是考虑到通胀压力缓和,所以委员会采取了一种保持耐心和等待加观察的方法。” 在美联储无所事事之际,债券和股票继续当仁不让,闪亮登场。

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