每日新闻更新 — 欧佩克 The Daily Update – OPEC

目前布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶67.71(美元),从去年年底开始一路上涨了近26%,欧佩克+似乎决定取消原定在4月份召开的会议。这意味着任何进一步的供应限制都将推迟到预订在6月份举行的下一次会议上。

据传,这次延迟的核心是俄罗斯和沙特的关系,它们是24国联盟中最强大的两个成员。沙特已经将产量削减至每天不到1000万桶,而俄罗斯在通往其商定的水平的途中步伐缓慢,大概才达到目标消减水平的一半。

事实上,这个问题的核心似乎有一种失衡,而这种失衡似乎来自两国的不同需求。俄罗斯在预算中仅将每桶定价为40美元,因此以目前的价位对进一步削减产量非常乐观,而沙特被认为需要95美元一桶才能平衡今年的预算并解决今年的政府支出。

欧佩克迫在眉睫的另一个问题可能是允许美国政府起诉该垄断组织的美国的 NOPEC(《打击原油生产、出口垄断组织法案》)立法。自2000年以来,美国政界人士多次尝试通过这项法案,但过去已经被叫停。当然,这里的风险是唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump),他一直呼吁石油输出国组织增加供应并降低原油成本;尽管他对 NOPEC 立法一直保持沉默,但我们都能理解这位总统所代表的显而易见的风险。

上周,阿联酋石油部长兼石油输出国组织前秘书长在德克萨斯州休斯顿的一次会议上对美国的金融家提出了警告;他告诉该集团,任何 NOPEC 法律都将瘫痪石油输出国组织,继而导致所有成员国提高产量并引起价格暴跌,而这一举动的首要受害者将是美国的页岩气市场及其金融家们。

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