每日新闻更新 — 保护主义和增长 The Daily Update – Protectionism & growth

在贸易谈判继续进行之时,特朗普总统与习近平主席之间的峰会已被推迟,但特朗普表示,谈判“进展非常顺利”,而中国国家新闻机构指出(谈判取得了)“实质性进展”:不过市场仍在期待达成协议以打破这种僵局。然而,美国强硬的贸易和关税方式似乎可能继续,美国可能会将注意力转向其他贸易伙伴。

2月17日美国商务部发布的“232条”报告为唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统以国家安全为由对汽车进口征收25%的关税打开了大门:总统有90天的时间对此作出决定。穆迪估计,“美国高达25%的关税以及来自美国主要汽车贸易伙伴的相应报复行动将扰乱约5000亿美元的贸易流量”,它们估计占2017年全世界进口量的2.8%和2017年全世界GDP的0.6% 。对日本、韩国、墨西哥和德国的制造商而言,任何影响都可能是最残酷的。

经合组织在其最新的经济前景中还警告汽车关税可能对欧盟产生负面影响:“机动车出口占欧盟对美国出口商品总量的10%左右,欧洲内部存在大量的供应链联系,而这种关系将把这种影响传遍其他国家和公司。”此外,鉴于目前经济增长如此疲弱,这种影响将会被敏感地感觉到:经合组织最新预测,2019年欧元区经济增长率仅为1%,2020年增长至1.2%,德国将在2019年增长0.7%,到2020年时重新加速至1.1%。穆迪估计,20-25%的汽车关税可能会使德国2019年和2020年的年增长率每年降低0.2%,但同时也指出,如果贸易紧张局势升级确实伤害到投资,那么这种影响可能会更大。

2018年7月,在美国对钢铁和铝征收关税以及威胁要对汽车征收关税之后,特朗普总统和欧盟主席让·克劳德·容克(Jean Claude Juncker)宣布了一项旨在改善若干领域贸易关系的倡议。然而,进展似乎缓慢,欧盟希望在贸易谈判中把农业排除在外,但美国不同意。特朗普最近继续施加压力,他说:“我们正努力达成一项协议。跟欧盟达成协议非常艰难”,以及“如果我们达不成协议,我们就会征收关税。”对我们而言,保护主义仍然对全球经济增长的前景构成重大风险。

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