每日新闻更新 — 历史事件的轮回 The Daily Update - The future/past repeating

10年期美国国债昨晚跌破2.4%,收盘刚好超过该水平,达到2017年12月以来的最低水平,比上周三美联储发表声明之前低了22个基点。

然而,更重要的是3月期/10年期价差的倒置,昨日交易价格为-7基点。该指标长期以来被人们看作是即将到来的经济衰退的预测工具,尽管时间难以判断。我的一位老友,一位“一方面经济学家”经常教导我,“从不要同时预测市场的行动和这种行动发生的时间,它们是两种不同的预测”。 但许多市场参与者盲目相信这种“工具”的作用,把它作为即将到来的经济衰退的准确指标。我们相信市场的力量,因为它是所有人的集体智慧,但我们也相信“从众心理”,当然还有“害怕”误读了市场,并且意识到,就在几个月前美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)还报告说美国国债总是抢手货。

虽然我们承认过去3月期/10年期指标的准确性,但许多观察者已经在对这个周期进行推演,预料到历史还会重演。我们确实认为经济不像某些人想象的那么稳定,而且可能出现经济衰退,也许就在明年。但我们要说的是,花费了6年的时间实施量化宽松政策和历史上较低的短期利率才使得经济增长率达到了2%至2.5%之间。但在过去几年中,这两种支持措施都已经被用过,而且在将利率提高到“新的正常水平”的同时,通过减少资产负债表而在某种程度上已被逆转,因此我们感到,对经济疲软必须要有充分的心理准备。

至于程度会有多深,就像美联储一样,我们也依赖于数据,但我们应该注意到的是,撇开历史事件的轮回不讲,在所有的中央银行中,关于支持经济前景,美联储可能处于最好的位置。

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