每日新闻更新 — “经济持续失望组织” The Daily Update - The Organisation for Economic Continued Disappointment

经合组织(OECD)再次下调了对全球经济增长的预期:将2019年的预测下调至仅3.3%。考虑到经合组织去年对全球经济前景进行了一系列的降级,以及贸易保护主义持续挑战已经背离了顾名思义就可以看出的经合组织的宗旨,如果将原来组成其名称的几个单词的首写字母保留不变,将这个组织的名称改为“The Organisation for Economic Continued Disappointment”(“经济持续失望组织”)或更有代表意义。

从2018年5月预计的3.7%到去年11月的3.5%,再到现在的3.3%,很明显,经济放缓已经普遍存在,而且仍将持续下去。他们对2020年的增长预期也从3.5%下调至3.4%。虽然这些对全球经济增长的修正有点缓慢,但整体上是温和的,人们看到对像中国这样最占主导地位的经济体(规模大、增长速度较快)的预测只需有较小幅度的调整就会导致其他地方一些严重而集中的放缓,此时这些修正却真的让人们开始担心起来。对2019年的中国、印度和美国的预测仅下调了0.1%(分别降至6.2%、7.2%和2.6%),而这里说的“其他地区”最为明显的就是位居核心欧洲的德国和苦苦挣扎的意大利,它们的经济增长率均却下调了约1%。德国从1.6%降至现在的0.7%,而意大利从0.9%降至-0.2%。英国也被显著地从1.4%下调至0.8%,并补充警告说,无协议脱欧将使这一数字变为负值。

事实上,新闻发布会以“看起来情况并不太好”这句话开头,接下来又说,“全球增长持续放缓,欧洲的增长远低于预期,部分是因为外部因素造成的,部分是因为内部疲软造成的。中国前景的不确定性也有所增加。新兴市场经济体对增长放缓确实具有抵御的能力,但主要是因为金融条件更为宽松。最不幸的是,贸易不确定性和政策风险仍然存在。”

今年早些时候,(欧洲央行行长)马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)问欧洲议会:“这是一次下滑还是正在走向一场衰退?”然后他自问自答地说,“不,这是一种放缓,而不是在走向衰退。但这次放缓可能比预期的时间要长。”德拉吉对这个问题的确信无疑和用词表达的方式对市场有一种已经被证明的指导能力,基本上没有明确的理由来支持对近期会出现衰退的预期。我们的模型和德拉吉和经合组织的预期是相吻合的,即尽管目前的经济放缓不是进入衰退的必经之路,但也不是短期的波动。在这种环境下,我们继续提倡来自债权国的优质信用,因为在这些国家中,对于那些明白向何处寻求以及如何去寻有吸引力的收益和更大程度的保护的人士来说,这些东西仍旧还是可以得到的。

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