每日新闻更新 — 特朗普与石油 The Daily Update – Trump and Oil

迄今为止,布伦特原油本年度交易价格上涨了约23%。因此,当唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在周一的推特上发怒时,也就不足为奇了:“油价涨得太高了,欧佩克,请放松,别那么紧张好不好。这个世界太脆弱了,承受不了油价的再次上涨!”布伦特原油交易下跌了3.5%,不过在周二有所回升,美国石油学会(API)报告显示美国原油库存已经下降。

此外,沙特阿拉伯能源部长哈立德·法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)周三发表的评论表示,在石油输出国组织及部分非成员国(OPEC+)12月决定将日产量从1月份消减120万桶后,石油供应方面仍需继续遵守记录。他说,“这25个国家正在采取一种非常缓慢和谨慎的方法。正如去年下半年所证明的那样,我们首先注重的是市场的稳定”,而且“我们要保持灵活,我个人倾向在下半年(2019年)会有一个尺度的放宽,但这不是自动的”。在这些评论的影响下,特别是当下午美国能源信息署(EIA) 的数据也显示石油市场库存在进一步减少时,油价陆续收复了几周前的很大一部分失地。 

下一次欧佩克会议将在4月举行,届时俄罗斯对减产的观点可能会发挥作用,因为俄罗斯人似乎对油价在每桶60美元左右感到满意,而沙特的感觉似乎是每桶接近80美元的水平,这可能反映出一个更高的80-85美元的预算盈亏水平。

我们当然不会反对特朗普的评论,即全球经济看起来很脆弱,欧佩克应注意价格上涨对经济增长放缓以及贸易紧张的影响。但目前的油价,仍远低于2018年美国中期选举前的水平,当时特朗普也公开表示反对。此外,美国对委内瑞拉和伊朗的制裁也无助于这种供应的形势。或许,反垄断法案《禁止石油生产和出口卡特尔法案》(NOPEC)可能会给特朗普提供一些帮助,该法案已获众议院司法委员会批准并将由众议院全体成员投票表决。然而,能源部长里克·佩里(Rick Perry)昨日警告说,“我认为,在通过可能产生影响的立法之前,我们需要非常小心,以免发生超出预期的后果”。   

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