每日新闻更新 — 有关跟中国达成协议的几句耳语 The Daily Update – Whispers of a Chinese Deal

昨天标准普尔500指数短暂突破5个月来的高点2850点,部分原因是美中两国即将举行的一轮贸易谈判。今天,果然不出所料的是,人们对最终包括相关议题的协议的疑虑重新浮出水面,美国市场从昨天的高点回落。然而,未来几周当然还有可能会达成部分交易。

尽管美国领导了这场征收关税之争,从有可能达成协议的更大范围的轮廓上看,到目前为止,看到特朗普和他的谈判代表是如何或多或少地领先于中国的外交官们的是一件饶有趣味的事情。也许部分原因是由于美国分裂的两院,另美国政府犹豫不决的是,到底是优先考虑短期的双边贸易逆差的解决方案,还是优先考虑长期的结构性问题的解决办法;说到底,这里的焦点集中在两个方面,一方面是各方都解除所有的报复性关税,另一方面是获得在知识产权以及目前(中国对)中美合资企业在技术转让上的施压(尽管不是法律)问题上有影响力的让步。

中国的策略很可能是通过立即取消关税并主动提出购买更多农业和能源产品、或许同意防止人民币(对美元或一篮子货币)贬值、以及减少对进入中国国内市场的美国公司的障碍让特朗普在公众面前表现出获得了胜利 — 但同时在结构变化方面却做出较少的让步,而这正是301关税条款的最初动机。

围绕近期让步的言论包括增加300亿美元的农产品进口 — 而关税前进口额为200亿美元(增长150%),这无疑会导致供过于求。此外,由于中国的能源需求持续增长(以及煤炭使用目标下降)以及美国页岩油和天然气行业的投资日趋成熟,它还谈到了看起来对双方都更为现实和互利的很多项为期数十年的石油和液化天然气的协议。

其他可能的让步是不明确的,诸如“扭曲市场的补贴”这样的术语对每一方来说肯定意味着非常不同的含义,但是原则上有可能同意达成部分协议,即使它们仍然没有完全接近真正的解决方案。如果产生了这样的部分协议,美国可能会相应地降低其2000亿美元的关税,同时维持其最初的500亿美元的关税,直到达成一项完整的协议为止。

最近中国举行了全国人民代表大会,在意识到2018年早期对基本政策的紧缩对经济增长产生了延迟影响之后,中国似乎再次瞄准了刺激经济增长的措施。中国在与美国的贸易谈判中寻求利益上的一致是将增长提升到新的6%-6.5%范围的关键部分,但很显然他们谁都不愿意输给对方。当然,从中国的重大经济冲击到特朗普一早起来心情有点糟糕却又看到中国在当前的谈判桌旁占了上风,仍然有无数的事情可能会使全部或部分协议难以达成。

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