每日新闻更新 — 巴西与养老金制度的改革 The Daily Update – Brazil & Pension Reform

改革巴西的养老金制度不仅是雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)政府的重要承诺,而且对于把巴西置于更加可持续发展的财政道路上的目标来讲也是至关重要的:巴西主权国家(债券)被穆迪/标准普尔/惠誉分别评为 Ba2/BB-/BB-,表现出近年来该国信贷指标的恶化。

穆迪注意到,为了让巴西不断增长的政府债务负担(约占GDP的76%)走上更可持续的道路,该国有必要进行财政整顿,也有必要进行社会保障改革。“强制性初级支出占中央政府总支出的90%以上,其中与社会保障相关的支出占初级支出的57%。此外,强制性支出的增长,特别是社会保障和与养老金相关的支出,在过去20年中已经超过了经济增长的速度。”

本周养老金改革法案在下议院宪法和司法委员会的投票中取得了一些进展,该法案规定该立法符合宪法,可以按程序向国会提出。现在,这一改革法案需要由国会委员会进行审查,然后才能进入众议院,再然后进入参议院。然而,下议院被超过30个政党撕裂,由于该法案需要一项宪法修正案,因此需要在下议院的两次投票中获得513票中的308票,然后在参议院的两次投票中获得81票中的49票,才能最终得到通过。博尔索纳罗的社会自由党控制下议院的52个席位,因此该法案提议的一万亿巴西雷亚尔的节俭(占GDP的约14%)目标在未来十年间最终很可能会缩水。从批准的时间安排以及阶段的数量来看,这个议案似乎可能需要几个月的时间才能获得批准。

不断减弱的巴西的信誉状况已经使得这个国家的信誉级别被降至次级投资级别,我们估计,其净外国债务接近我们对GDP的50%的界限划分。国际货币基金组织的研究表明,外国净负债超过国内生产总值50%的国家将和外部危机风险的增加相关联。此外,从估值角度来看,巴西主权债券在我们的模型上看并不具有吸引力:若使用债券BB-的评级,以美元计价的2028年4.625%的巴西联邦共和国国债的交易价格目前有大约3个级别那么贵。

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