每日新闻更新 —贪小便宜吃大亏?这次例外。The Daily Update – Buy Cheaply, Pay Dearly…. Not in this case.

我们斯特拉顿大街认为净外国资产排名高于3星以上的国家为“富裕国家”,我们除了喜欢来自这些国家的投资级债券之外,还把风险调整后的相对价值作为我们纳入可投资领域的最重要标准之一。一个很好的例子可能是新加坡控股公司淡马锡(Temasek)发行的2039年期5.375%的债券。若使用我们专有的净外国资产模型,我们计算出新加坡是富裕国家,净外国资产超过GDP的200%,从而达到最高的7星级排名。穆迪和标准普尔均将这个国有的淡马锡评为AAA级。在风险调整后的相对价值方面,我们计算出2039年期美元债券预期回报和收益率约为9.2%;所以便宜。


 下边我们不妨将此与尼日利亚的被评为副投资级别对比一下,它的净外国资产被评为四星级。人们会期望这种B2/B+债券能够提供更多的吸引力。但是,如果我们看看尼日利亚政府的2038年期的7.696%的债券,预计收益率为-20.25%。有些人可能会单独看待这个“有吸引力”的7.7%的收益率,但是,当我们考虑这个因素时,可比的收益率和回报率并没有获得进入我们的投资组合的资格;价格昂贵,-12.55%。该债券目前以超过美国国债480个基点的价差在交易,实际上可能遭受19点的资本损失,达到估计约为700个基点的“公允价值”差价。

有句俗话说:“一次买得便宜,就需要买两次”,不过在这种情况下,我们倒是很乐意拥有双倍的淡马锡债券。

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